Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior v Groningen

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:44 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior (Local)

Prediction 35.01%2.86fair odd
EV -0.218%
Edge -0.077%
Kelly -0.118%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.66%35.07%34.97%36.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.642.8540.00%37.67%37.88%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Groningen (Visit)

Prediction 38.60%2.59fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.768%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.25%38.60%38.53%40.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.412.432.5446.51%41.47%41.15%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.39%3.79fair odd
EV +0.270%
Edge +0.071%
Kelly +0.096%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%26.33%26.49%27.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.8030.30%28.47%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Excelsior (Local): 35.01%; Groningen (Visit): 38.60%; Draw: 26.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.270%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.68%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV +0.270%E +0.071%K +0.096%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 14:39
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.68%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV +0.270%E +0.071%K +0.096%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 14:40
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -7.22%E -2.72%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.79%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.05%E -0.280%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 14:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -1.05%E -0.280%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 14:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.68%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.55%EV -1.95%E -0.768%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -2.37%E -0.640%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 14:01
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.68%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.55%EV -1.95%E -0.768%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -2.37%E -0.640%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 14:01
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.68%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.55%EV -1.95%E -0.768%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -2.37%E -0.640%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -10.72%E -4.20%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -2.37%E -0.640%K -0.877%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 14:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.24%EV -0.218%E -0.077%K -0.118%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.03%EV -3.49%E -1.40%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%EV -3.69%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-11 14:39
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.02%EV -4.07%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.69%EV -4.27%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -3.69%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-11 14:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.24%EV -1.97%E -0.703%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.13%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.63%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 14:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.24%EV -1.97%E -0.703%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.13%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.63%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 14:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 14:39
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -8.27%E -3.16%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -3.49%E -1.40%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 14:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.83%EV -6.20%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 14:39
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -7.22%E -2.72%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -8.27%E -3.16%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:09
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -8.13%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 14:19
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -10.72%E -4.20%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -10.72%E -4.20%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 14:39
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -12.47%E -4.99%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -13.15%E -5.84%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 14:39
Pinnacle🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.98%EV -0.218%E -0.077%K -0.118%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.74%EV -3.49%E -1.40%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-11 14:40
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.41%EV -3.72%E -1.35%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -6.20%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 14:39
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 14:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.37%EV -10.72%E -4.20%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.22%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.41%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-11 14:40
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.82%EV -1.97%E -0.703%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.13%EV -6.58%E -2.72%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 14:40
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -3.72%E -1.35%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 14:39
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.22%E -2.72%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 14:34
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.22%E -2.72%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 14:24
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 14:39
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 14:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -10.72%E -4.20%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.23%EV -11.99%E -5.26%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.70%EV -8.17%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 14:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.84%EV -6.52%E -2.44%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.28%EV -6.20%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.88%EV -8.70%E -2.51%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 14:29
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.82%EV -3.88%E -1.56%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 14:24
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.82%EV -3.88%E -1.56%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 14:24
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 14:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 14:39
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 14:40
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -8.13%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 14:40
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.66%EV -2.67%E -0.960%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.15%EV -7.74%E -3.24%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.20%EV -9.23%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 14:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -5.47%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 14:39
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.27%E -3.16%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 14:20
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.27%E -3.16%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.27%E -3.16%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 14:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.27%E -3.16%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.06%EV -10.72%E -4.20%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.40%EV -17.01%E -7.91%K -14.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-11 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -7.92%E -3.01%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -10.06%E -4.32%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -7.92%E -3.01%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -10.06%E -4.32%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 14:39
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -7.92%E -3.01%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -10.06%E -4.32%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 14:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.41%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 14:40
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 14:20
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 14:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -10.72%E -4.20%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-11 14:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -10.44%E -4.50%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-11 14:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -8.97%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -10.44%E -4.50%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-11 14:39
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -12.47%E -4.99%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -8.13%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-11 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%0.7%2026-10-11 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-10-11 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-10-11 14:39
Matchbook◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-10-11 14:40
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-10-11 14:04
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.00%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.04%1.3%2026-10-11 14:40