The School of Odds
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Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 20:00 UTC

Final: Excelsior 0–1 Go Ahead Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior (Local)

Prediction 38.24%2.62fair odd
EV +1.33%
Edge +0.503%
Kelly +0.808%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.54%38.19%38.36%39.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.452.452.6546.51%40.76%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Go Ahead Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 35.81%2.79fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.820%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.00%35.83%35.74%36.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.582.602.7342.55%38.78%38.46%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.95%3.85fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.574%
Kelly -0.781%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.97%25.98%25.90%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.543.553.7731.75%28.27%28.17%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Excelsior (Local): 38.24%; Go Ahead Eagles (Visit): 35.81%; Draw: 25.95%. For Excelsior (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.82%EV +1.33%E +0.503%K +0.808%G +0.011%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.82%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%EV -3.98%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-07 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.82%EV +1.33%E +0.503%K +0.808%G +0.011%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.82%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%EV -3.98%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-07 19:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.82%EV +1.33%E +0.503%K +0.808%G +0.011%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.82%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%EV -3.98%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-07 19:45
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.90%EV -0.579%E -0.223%K -0.362%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.07%EV -4.74%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.03%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-07 19:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.16%EV -2.49%E -0.977%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.17%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 19:35
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.49%E -0.977%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.68%E -3.41%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.17%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-07 19:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.49%E -0.977%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.68%E -3.41%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.17%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-07 19:45
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.49%E -0.977%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.68%E -3.41%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.17%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-07 19:45
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.66%EV -4.02%E -1.60%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.54%EV -2.24%E -0.820%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.80%EV -2.42%E -0.645%K -0.878%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-07 19:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.62%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.76%EV -3.31%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -2.16%E -0.574%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-07 19:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.62%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.76%EV -3.31%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -2.16%E -0.574%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-07 19:35
BetAnything🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.62%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.76%EV -3.31%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -2.16%E -0.574%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-07 19:34
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.31%E -1.23%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -2.68%E -0.715%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-07 19:34
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 19:35
picklebet_au🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 19:35
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 19:35
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.47%E -3.03%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 19:45
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.47%E -3.03%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 19:45
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.10%EV -5.17%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-07 19:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.17%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.20%EV -7.97%E -3.10%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.28%EV -8.13%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-07 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.17%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -11.19%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 19:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.17%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -11.19%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 19:45
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.17%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -11.19%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 19:45
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.17%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -11.19%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 19:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -2.68%E -0.715%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 19:45
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -2.68%E -0.715%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 19:45
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -5.28%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 19:35
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.47%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.70%EV -5.46%E -2.07%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -5.28%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 19:47
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 19:44
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 19:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 19:35
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.17%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 19:35
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -9.17%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-07 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.61%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.61%EV -12.27%E -5.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-07 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -7.08%E -2.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -12.98%E -5.34%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -14.36%E -4.35%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-07 19:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.10%E -1.93%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-07 19:50
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.18%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-07 19:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -8.68%E -3.41%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -3.98%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-07 19:45
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-07 19:45
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -8.68%E -3.41%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-07 19:45
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-07 19:45
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-07 19:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-07 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-07 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.94%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-07 19:35
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -8.99%E -3.78%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-07 19:45
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.99%E -3.78%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-07 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.99%E -3.78%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-07 19:55
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -8.99%E -3.78%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -14.36%E -4.35%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-07 19:43
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.58%EV -10.14%E -4.31%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.05%EV -12.27%E -5.01%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-11-07 19:45
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -12.05%E -5.24%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-07 19:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -12.05%E -5.24%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.37%EV -14.06%E -5.86%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-07 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -13.96%E -6.21%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-07 19:33
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 38.50%EV -17.79%E -8.27%K -15.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.22%EV -15.85%E -6.74%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.28%EV -18.25%E -5.79%K -8.49%G +0.000%20.8%2026-11-07 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 38.03%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.98%-0.0%2026-11-07 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 38.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.81%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.5%2026-11-07 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 38.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.81%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.5%2026-11-07 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 38.00%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.81%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.5%2026-11-07 19:55
Matchbook◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.46%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-11-07 19:55
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03%1.1%2026-11-07 19:55

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