The School of Odds
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AZ Alkmaar v Groningen

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 15:45 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 4–3 Groningen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prediction 63.82%1.57fair odd
EV +0.196%
Edge +0.125%
Kelly +0.344%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.67%63.72%63.78%66.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.451.451.5775.19%68.91%68.97%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Groningen (Visit)

Prediction 16.34%6.12fair odd
EV +6.18%
Edge +0.951%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.99%16.47%16.34%19.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.695.756.5021.28%17.58%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.85%5.04fair odd
EV +3.20%
Edge +0.614%
Kelly +0.761%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.74%19.82%19.88%21.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.694.725.2024.39%21.31%21.16%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 63.82%; Groningen (Visit): 16.34%; Draw: 19.85%. For Groningen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.12. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 66.12%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 15.06%EV +6.18%E +0.951%K +1.12%G +0.069%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.82%EV +3.20%E +0.614%K +0.761%G +0.024%2.2%2026-11-08 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 66.12%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 15.06%EV +6.18%E +0.951%K +1.12%G +0.069%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.82%EV +3.20%E +0.614%K +0.761%G +0.024%2.2%2026-11-08 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.99%EV +6.18%E +0.951%K +1.12%G +0.069%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.74%EV +3.20%E +0.614%K +0.761%G +0.024%2.6%2026-11-08 15:14
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.53%EV -4.91%E -3.30%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.31%EV +2.59%E +0.412%K +0.490%G +0.013%4.77I 20.96%NM 20.16%EV -5.34%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-08 15:40
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.58%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.29%EV +2.10%E +0.336%K +0.400%G +0.008%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-08 15:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -0.774%E -0.155%K -0.193%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 07:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -0.774%E -0.155%K -0.193%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 07:15
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -0.774%E -0.155%K -0.193%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 07:15
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -0.774%E -0.155%K -0.193%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 07:15
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.33%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.91%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 15:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -7.46%E -5.15%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 15:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -8.74%E -6.11%K -20.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:00
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -8.74%E -6.11%K -20.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:00
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -8.74%E -6.11%K -20.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -1.99%E -0.331%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.15%EV -7.46%E -5.15%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.63%EV -2.80%E -0.471%K -0.566%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 07:10
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.29%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.02%EV -3.62%E -0.613%K -0.739%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 14:50
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.59%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -3.62%E -0.613%K -0.739%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 15:40
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.48%EV -2.99%E -1.97%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.50%EV -4.44%E -0.758%K -0.915%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.02%EV -4.35%E -0.902%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-08 15:40
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.18%EV -6.82%E -4.67%K -14.84%G +0.000%5.82I 17.18%NM 16.10%EV -4.93%E -0.846%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-08 14:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.69%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -5.25%E -0.906%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -6.73%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-08 14:59
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -5.25%E -0.906%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 15:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.43%EV -7.46%E -5.15%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -5.25%E -0.906%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 14:50
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.62%EV -8.74%E -6.11%K -20.32%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -5.25%E -0.906%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-08 15:14
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.45%EV -4.91%E -3.30%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.07%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.73%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 15:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -6.07%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 14:54
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -6.07%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 15:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -7.46%E -5.15%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.07%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:40
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -7.46%E -5.15%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -6.07%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-08 14:50
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.39%EV -8.74%E -6.11%K -20.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -6.07%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -6.73%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-08 15:15
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.01%EV -9.38%E -6.60%K -22.33%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -8.52%E -1.52%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-08 15:00
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.17%EV -10.02%E -7.10%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -8.52%E -1.52%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-08 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.17%EV -10.02%E -7.10%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -8.52%E -1.52%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-08 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.17%EV -10.02%E -7.10%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -8.52%E -1.52%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-08 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.06%EV -10.65%E -7.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -8.52%E -1.52%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-08 14:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.27%EV -12.57%E -9.17%K -33.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -8.52%E -1.52%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.01%EV -12.68%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-08 14:59
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -4.27%E -2.85%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 15:40
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -4.27%E -2.85%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 15:40
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -5.55%E -3.75%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-08 15:40
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -6.19%E -4.21%K -13.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 14:55
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-08 14:20
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-08 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-08 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-08 14:20
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.71%E -1.89%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-08 15:40
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-08 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.68%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-08 15:39
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.07%E -3.25%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-08 15:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.20%EV -11.93%E -8.64%K -31.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.11%EV -10.15%E -1.85%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.69%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-08 14:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.57%EV -4.27%E -2.85%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -14.24%E -2.71%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 15:40
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -14.24%E -2.71%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -16.65%E -3.96%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-08 15:18
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.71%EV -11.93%E -8.64%K -31.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.75%EV -14.24%E -2.71%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.54%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-08 15:18
Winamax (DE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -15.05%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -4.74%E -0.988%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-08 14:55
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.10%E -5.63%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -18.32%E -3.66%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-08 15:05
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%EV +0.196%E +0.125%K +0.344%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -21.59%E -4.50%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-08 15:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.39%EV -10.65%E -7.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.20%EV -21.59%E -4.50%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.41%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%14.5%2026-11-08 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 62.21%EV -15.12%E -11.37%K -45.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.61%EV -23.22%E -4.94%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.18%EV -18.63%E -4.55%K -6.01%G +0.000%20.9%2026-11-08 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-11-08 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.1%2026-11-08 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.1%2026-11-08 15:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.1%2026-11-08 15:40
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.04%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%1.4%2026-11-08 15:40
Matchbook◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.73%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.83%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.45%1.9%2026-11-08 15:40

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