Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ajax v NEC Nijmegen

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Final: Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ajax (Local)

Prediction 71.05%1.41fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -7.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.68%70.86%71.22%73.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.311.3780.00%76.55%76.34%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visit)

Prediction 12.72%7.86fair odd
EV +8.08%
Edge +0.951%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.36%12.79%12.50%15.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.457.508.5016.67%13.42%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.23%6.16fair odd
EV +3.88%
Edge +0.607%
Kelly +0.719%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.15%16.35%16.28%18.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.675.756.4020.00%17.62%17.39%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 71.05%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 12.72%; Draw: 16.23%. For NEC Nijmegen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.86. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.45%EV -6.21%E -4.71%K -19.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.41%EV +8.08%E +0.951%K +1.08%G +0.087%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.15%EV +3.88%E +0.607%K +0.719%G +0.028%3.1%2026-10-10 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.18%EV -6.21%E -4.71%K -19.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.36%EV +8.08%E +0.951%K +1.08%G +0.087%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV +1.45%E +0.232%K +0.276%G +0.004%3.5%2026-10-10 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.18%EV -6.21%E -4.71%K -19.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.36%EV +8.08%E +0.951%K +1.08%G +0.087%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV +1.45%E +0.232%K +0.276%G +0.004%3.5%2026-10-10 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.49%EV -4.79%E -3.57%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.52%EV +4.27%E +0.521%K +0.593%G +0.025%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -14.78%E -2.82%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:55
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.26%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%8.06I 12.41%NM 11.59%EV +2.49%E +0.309%K +0.353%G +0.009%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.15%EV -16.41%E -3.19%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.01%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%8.03I 12.45%NM 11.93%EV +2.11%E +0.262%K +0.300%G +0.006%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.07%EV -3.26%E -0.547%K -0.657%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 18:50
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -2.66%E -1.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%8.01I 12.48%NM 11.98%EV +1.85%E +0.231%K +0.264%G +0.005%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.00%EV -13.48%E -2.53%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 18:54
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +1.73%E +0.216%K +0.247%G +0.004%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:54
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +1.73%E +0.216%K +0.247%G +0.004%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:54
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.69%EV -7.63%E -5.87%K -25.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +1.73%E +0.216%K +0.247%G +0.004%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.49%EV -0.986%E -0.162%K -0.193%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -7.63%E -5.87%K -25.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +1.73%E +0.216%K +0.247%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.61%E -0.435%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -8.34%E -6.47%K -28.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV +1.73%E +0.216%K +0.247%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -2.61%E -0.435%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:50
Casumo🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -8.34%E -6.47%K -28.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV +1.73%E +0.216%K +0.247%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -2.61%E -0.435%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:50
betPARX🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -8.34%E -6.47%K -28.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV +1.73%E +0.216%K +0.247%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -2.61%E -0.435%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.05%EV +0.454%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 15.30%EV +0.961%E +0.155%K +0.184%G +0.002%5.1%2026-10-10 14:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.05%EV +0.454%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 15.30%EV +0.961%E +0.155%K +0.184%G +0.002%5.1%2026-10-10 14:01
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.05%EV +0.454%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 15.30%EV +0.961%E +0.155%K +0.184%G +0.002%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.62%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.04%EV +0.454%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.34%EV +0.637%E +0.103%K +0.122%G +0.001%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.90%EV -7.63%E -5.87%K -25.44%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.98%EV -0.817%E -0.105%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.12%EV -5.86%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.49%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.08%EV -1.45%E -0.188%K -0.215%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.43%EV -7.48%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.79%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.67%EV -2.61%E -0.435%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 18:50
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.71%EV -8.34%E -6.47%K -28.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.95%EV -5.86%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.71%EV -8.34%E -6.47%K -28.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.95%EV -5.86%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 18:54
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -18.84%E -3.77%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 18:55
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.77%EV -9.05%E -7.07%K -32.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.25%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.77%EV -9.05%E -7.07%K -32.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.25%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.10%EV -8.34%E -6.47%K -28.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -10.73%E -1.95%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.63%EV -9.76%E -7.69%K -36.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -9.10%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.63%EV -9.76%E -7.69%K -36.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -9.10%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 18:50
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.63%EV -9.76%E -7.69%K -36.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -9.10%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.09%EV -10.47%E -8.31%K -40.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -11.18%E -8.95%K -44.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -4.63%E -0.618%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -14.78%E -2.82%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 18:42
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.38%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.91%EV -7.81%E -1.08%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.71%EV -9.10%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.23%EV -11.18%E -8.95%K -44.74%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.28%EV -7.81%E -1.08%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.49%EV -12.35%E -2.29%K -2.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-10 18:50
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.53%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -2.61%E -0.435%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.53%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -2.61%E -0.435%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.44%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.98%EV -3.42%E -0.575%K -0.691%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -5.86%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.20%EV -4.79%E -3.57%K -14.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 18:54
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -6.67%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 18:50
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -18.84%E -3.77%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:55
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -18.84%E -3.77%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -18.84%E -3.77%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -18.84%E -3.77%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.97%EV -10.47%E -8.31%K -40.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -10.73%E -1.95%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-10 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.18%E -8.95%K -44.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -14.78%E -2.82%K -3.48%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-10 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -11.18%E -8.95%K -44.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -18.84%E -3.77%K -4.71%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-10 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -11.18%E -8.95%K -44.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -10.99%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -18.84%E -3.77%K -4.71%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-10 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.78%EV -8.34%E -6.47%K -28.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.85%EV -17.35%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -10.73%E -1.95%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-10 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.47%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -20.53%E -3.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.97%EV -7.48%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.35%EV -11.18%E -8.95%K -44.74%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 13.98%EV -21.16%E -3.41%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.67%EV -15.60%E -3.00%K -3.71%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-10 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.86%EV -6.92%E -5.28%K -22.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -23.71%E -3.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.11%EV -9.10%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-10 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.64%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.31%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.05%0.5%2026-10-10 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.45%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.45%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.45%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.79%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.29%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.88%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.83%1.1%2026-10-10 18:50