The School of Odds
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Ajax v AZ Alkmaar

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 20:00 UTC

Final: Ajax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ajax (Local)

Prediction 51.86%1.93fair odd
EV -0.941%
Edge -0.493%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.19%51.83%51.83%53.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.801.801.9161.73%55.53%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visit)

Prediction 25.02%4.00fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.401%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.98%25.03%25.03%26.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.693.703.9530.30%27.07%27.03%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.12%4.33fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.236%
Kelly +0.306%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.93%23.14%23.13%24.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.984.004.3727.78%25.10%25.00%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 51.86%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 25.02%; Draw: 23.12%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.37, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.52%EV -3.53%E -1.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.55%EV -9.69%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.93%EV +1.03%E +0.236%K +0.306%G +0.003%4.3%2026-10-31 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.54%EV -1.68%E -0.428%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.75%EV -1.97%E -0.466%K -0.609%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.54%EV -1.68%E -0.428%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.75%EV -1.97%E -0.466%K -0.609%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 19:25
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.54%EV -1.68%E -0.428%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.75%EV -1.97%E -0.466%K -0.609%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 19:25
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.54%EV -1.68%E -0.428%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.75%EV -1.97%E -0.466%K -0.609%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 19:25
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.12%EV -5.61%E -3.08%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 19:25
picklebet_au🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 19:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -5.61%E -3.08%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 19:10
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.20%EV -7.68%E -4.32%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV -1.18%E -0.299%K -0.401%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.82%EV -4.05%E -0.977%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.01%EV -3.53%E -1.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.62%EV -1.68%E -0.428%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.37%EV -4.29%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 19:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.14%EV -0.941%E -0.493%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV -2.43%E -0.624%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-31 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.14%EV -0.941%E -0.493%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%EV -2.43%E -0.624%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-31 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.53%EV -2.50%E -1.33%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -2.43%E -0.624%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-31 19:35
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.60%EV -4.05%E -2.19%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-31 19:55
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 19:25
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 19:48
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 19:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 19:30
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.63%EV -8.20%E -4.63%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.65%EV -5.43%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.76%EV -8.72%E -4.95%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 19:29
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.38%EV -5.61%E -3.08%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.41%EV -7.94%E -2.16%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.21%EV -6.83%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 19:55
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 19:25
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -5.61%E -3.08%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 19:49
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 19:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 19:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 19:25
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 19:25
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -8.20%E -4.63%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 19:55
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -7.68%E -4.32%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 19:25
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -10.28%E -5.94%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.23%EV -11.31%E -6.62%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -11.19%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.61%EV -8.68%E -2.20%K -2.94%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-31 19:34
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 19:55
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 19:35
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 19:34
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.09%EV -8.20%E -4.63%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 19:55
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 19:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 19:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 19:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 19:35
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.59%EV -5.09%E -2.78%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.69%E -2.38%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 19:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.74%EV -11.31%E -6.62%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.98%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-31 19:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.11%EV -11.83%E -6.96%K -16.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.33%EV -17.44%E -5.29%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.57%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-31 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.39%EV -5.61%E -3.08%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 19:35
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.24%E -5.28%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.24%E -5.28%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 19:55
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.73%EV -11.83%E -6.96%K -16.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-31 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.75%EV -15.98%E -9.87%K -25.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.77%EV -13.69%E -3.97%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.49%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-31 19:34
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -6.13%E -3.39%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -11.19%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.33%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.19%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 19:35
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.33%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.19%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.33%EV -6.65%E -3.69%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.19%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.26%EV -7.68%E -4.32%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -14.46%E -3.91%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 19:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.19%EV -8.72%E -4.95%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.61%EV -13.69%E -3.97%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.20%EV -15.61%E -4.28%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-31 19:35
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -9.24%E -5.28%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -16.77%E -4.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-31 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-10-31 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-10-31 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-10-31 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-10-31 19:55
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%0.9%2026-10-31 19:10
Matchbook◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-10-31 19:55

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