The School of Odds
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ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 17:45 UTC

Final: ADO Den Haag 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ADO Den Haag (Local)

Prediction 36.18%2.76fair odd
EV +0.945%
Edge +0.339%
Kelly +0.528%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.42%36.25%36.18%37.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.552.7942.55%39.09%39.22%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visit)

Prediction 38.27%2.61fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.539%
Kelly +0.865%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.70%38.28%38.30%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.442.452.6547.62%40.91%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.54%3.91fair odd
EV +0.134%
Edge +0.034%
Kelly +0.046%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.54%25.47%25.51%26.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.613.603.9231.25%27.73%27.78%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ADO Den Haag (Local): 36.18%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 38.27%; Draw: 25.54%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.61. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.95%EV -4.12%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.95%EV +1.43%E +0.539%K +0.865%G +0.012%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.1%2026-11-07 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.95%EV -4.12%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.95%EV +1.43%E +0.539%K +0.865%G +0.012%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.1%2026-11-07 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.95%EV -4.12%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.95%EV +1.43%E +0.539%K +0.865%G +0.012%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.1%2026-11-07 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -2.40%E -0.941%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -9.32%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-07 17:30
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -2.40%E -0.941%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -9.32%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-07 17:30
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -2.40%E -0.941%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -9.32%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-07 17:30
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%EV -4.84%E -1.84%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.35%EV -3.17%E -1.25%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.75%EV +0.134%E +0.034%K +0.046%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-07 17:30
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -5.21%E -1.99%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -3.55%E -1.41%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-07 17:37
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.31%E -0.856%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.70%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -2.93%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-07 17:10
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 17:10
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 17:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -4.12%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -9.32%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 17:10
picklebet_au🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 17:10
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.59%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-07 17:10
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -10.59%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-07 17:30
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -4.31%E -1.73%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -11.87%E -3.44%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 17:10
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.25%EV -6.65%E -2.58%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.56%EV -4.70%E -1.89%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.20%EV -8.81%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-07 17:37
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.53%EV -1.59%E -0.584%K -0.923%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.97%EV -5.08%E -2.05%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.50%EV -3.19%E -0.841%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.53%EV -1.59%E -0.584%K -0.923%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.97%EV -5.08%E -2.05%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.50%EV -3.19%E -0.841%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 17:10
BetAnything🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.53%EV -1.59%E -0.584%K -0.923%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.97%EV -5.08%E -2.05%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.50%EV -3.19%E -0.841%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 17:10
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.45%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.75%EV -5.08%E -2.05%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 17:05
Bovada🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.63%EV -7.02%E -2.73%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 17:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 17:37
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 17:39
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 17:10
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.32%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 17:37
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.59%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 17:15
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.59%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.59%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 17:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.59%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-07 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.47%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.92%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 17:10
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.47%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.92%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.47%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.92%EV -6.23%E -2.54%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.50%EV -11.36%E -4.64%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.80%EV -6.99%E -2.88%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -14.43%E -4.31%K -6.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-07 17:05
1xBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.42%EV +0.945%E +0.339%K +0.528%G +0.005%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.84%EV -7.76%E -3.22%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV -4.72%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.53%EV -5.21%E -1.99%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.62%EV -7.76%E -3.22%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-07 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.36%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.14%E -3.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -0.377%E -0.097%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-07 17:37
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.25%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -8.14%E -3.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -1.65%E -0.430%K -0.580%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 17:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -8.14%E -3.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-07 17:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -8.14%E -3.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -2.93%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-07 17:37
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -8.14%E -3.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -2.93%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-07 17:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.52%EV -12.08%E -4.97%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.98%EV -8.14%E -3.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.49%EV -14.43%E -4.31%K -6.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-07 17:30
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -8.91%E -3.74%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-07 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -8.91%E -3.74%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-07 17:39
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -7.74%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -10.05%E -4.28%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.25%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -10.05%E -4.28%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-07 17:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.01%EV -11.36%E -4.64%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.03%EV -11.20%E -4.83%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-07 17:37
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.97%E -5.20%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-07 17:37
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -13.89%E -5.84%K -10.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.97%E -5.20%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -2.93%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-07 17:19
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -9.55%E -3.82%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -11.97%E -5.20%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-07 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.37%EV -13.17%E -5.49%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -11.97%E -5.20%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-07 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.27%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.23%EV -14.65%E -6.57%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.50%EV -12.38%E -3.61%K -5.10%G +0.000%14.3%2026-11-07 17:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.05%EV -14.97%E -6.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.22%EV -19.62%E -9.34%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.74%EV -18.26%E -5.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%21.4%2026-11-07 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-11-07 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-11-07 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.17%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%0.9%2026-11-07 17:40
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-11-07 17:37
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.1%2026-11-07 17:37
Matchbook◎2.72I 36.76%NM 35.99%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.24%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.76%2.1%2026-11-07 17:37

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