Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:30 UTC

Final: ADO Den Haag 2–1 PSV Eindhoven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ADO Den Haag (Local)

Prediction 11.28%8.86fair odd
EV +8.33%
Edge +0.868%
Kelly +0.968%
Growth +0.081%

assuming max odds 9.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.99%11.29%11.31%13.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.228.439.6014.81%12.17%11.86%10.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visit)

Prediction 72.89%1.37fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -6.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.42%72.91%72.88%74.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.281.3481.97%78.47%78.13%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.83%6.32fair odd
EV +3.20%
Edge +0.490%
Kelly +0.579%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 6.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.65%15.80%15.81%16.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.875.806.5218.52%17.03%17.24%15.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ADO Den Haag (Local): 11.28%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 72.89%; Draw: 15.83%. For ADO Den Haag (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.86. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯9.60I 10.42%NM 9.99%EV +8.33%E +0.868%K +0.968%G +0.081%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.36%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.65%EV -2.98%E -0.485%K -0.580%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 14:25
Coolbet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +7.20%E +0.758%K +0.847%G +0.061%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 14:20
betano_uk🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +7.20%E +0.758%K +0.847%G +0.061%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 14:13
Bet Victor🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +7.20%E +0.758%K +0.847%G +0.061%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 14:14
NordicBet🎯9.30I 10.75%NM 10.18%EV +4.94%E +0.531%K +0.596%G +0.029%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.36%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 14:25
Betsson🎯9.09I 11.00%NM 10.30%EV +2.57%E +0.283%K +0.318%G +0.008%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.57%EV -10.57%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 14:25
Fanatics🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV +1.56%E +0.173%K +0.195%G +0.003%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 14:15
Betr (AU)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +1.56%E +0.173%K +0.195%G +0.003%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 14:20
Bovada🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +1.56%E +0.173%K +0.195%G +0.003%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.43%E -5.85%K -27.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 14:21
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +1.56%E +0.173%K +0.195%G +0.003%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -7.43%E -5.85%K -27.53%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -8.20%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 14:25
SportsBet🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -1.26%E -0.144%K -0.163%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.51%EV -7.43%E -5.85%K -27.53%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -6.62%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.41%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.45%EV -3.79%E -2.87%K -11.84%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.15%EV +1.30%E +0.203%K +0.240%G +0.003%3.1%2026-10-17 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.41%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.45%EV -3.79%E -2.87%K -11.84%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.15%EV +1.30%E +0.203%K +0.240%G +0.003%3.1%2026-10-17 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.28%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -5.25%E -4.04%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.98%EV +1.30%E +0.203%K +0.240%G +0.003%4.3%2026-10-17 14:10
DraftKings🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.92%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -8.20%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 14:10
Casumo🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.92%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -8.20%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 14:10
betPARX🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.92%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -8.20%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -7.43%E -5.85%K -27.53%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.77%EV -6.62%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 14:10
888sport🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 14:25
Bet Right🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.60%EV -8.16%E -6.48%K -31.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 14:20
betfred_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.08%E -0.481%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯8.43I 11.86%NM 11.33%EV -4.87%E -0.578%K -0.656%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.52I 15.34%NM 14.65%EV +3.20%E +0.490%K +0.579%G +0.019%4.7%2026-10-17 07:05
BetOnline.ag🎯8.43I 11.86%NM 11.33%EV -4.87%E -0.578%K -0.656%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.52I 15.34%NM 14.65%EV +3.20%E +0.490%K +0.579%G +0.019%4.7%2026-10-17 07:05
BetUS🎯8.43I 11.86%NM 11.33%EV -4.87%E -0.578%K -0.656%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.52I 15.34%NM 14.65%EV +3.20%E +0.490%K +0.579%G +0.019%4.7%2026-10-17 07:05
BetAnything🎯8.43I 11.86%NM 11.33%EV -4.87%E -0.578%K -0.656%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.52I 15.34%NM 14.65%EV +3.20%E +0.490%K +0.579%G +0.019%4.7%2026-10-17 07:05
Unibet (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.25%E -4.04%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 14:10
Coral🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.25%E -4.04%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 14:15
picklebet_au🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.25%E -4.04%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 14:10
Betway🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -5.97%E -4.63%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 14:25
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.97%EV -7.43%E -5.85%K -27.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-17 14:25
Unibet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 14:10
PlayUp🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -6.70%E -5.24%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 14:25
Grosvenor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.51%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.48%EV -7.43%E -5.85%K -27.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -8.99%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 14:10
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 14:10
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -11.08%E -9.08%K -50.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -9.73%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -11.08%E -9.08%K -50.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 14:15
Codere (IT)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.12%EV -11.98%E -1.54%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.14%EV -4.52%E -3.45%K -14.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 14:10
1xBet🎯7.76I 12.89%NM 12.41%EV -12.43%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.84%EV -2.33%E -1.74%K -6.85%G +0.000%6.11I 16.37%NM 15.76%EV -3.29%E -0.539%K -0.644%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 14:25
BetMGM🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.26%EV -12.55%E -1.62%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -4.52%E -3.45%K -14.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -1.08%E -0.172%K -0.205%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.48%EV -12.55%E -1.62%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 72.34%EV -10.35%E -8.41%K -44.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -5.25%E -4.04%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 14:15
BetRivers🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.63%EV -7.43%E -5.85%K -27.53%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -11.36%E -2.03%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.79%EV -8.16%E -6.48%K -31.39%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.15%EV -11.36%E -2.03%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.79%EV -8.16%E -6.48%K -31.39%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.15%EV -11.36%E -2.03%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 14:10
TABtouch🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.79%EV -8.16%E -6.48%K -31.39%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.15%EV -11.36%E -2.03%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 14:10
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 14:00
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 14:10
PMU (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -15.37%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -12.95%E -2.35%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.28%EV -18.19%E -2.51%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.82%EV -9.62%E -7.76%K -40.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -11.36%E -2.03%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -21.01%E -3.00%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.94%EV -8.16%E -6.48%K -31.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -5.03%E -0.839%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.45%EV -21.01%E -3.00%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.42%EV -11.08%E -9.08%K -50.35%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.14%EV -14.53%E -2.69%K -3.30%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-17 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -23.83%E -3.53%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -8.89%E -7.11%K -35.56%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.17%EV -6.62%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-10-17 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%0.9%2026-10-17 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%0.9%2026-10-17 14:25
Matchbook◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%0.9%2026-10-17 14:25
Smarkets◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.38%1.31I 76.34%NM 75.22%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.40%1.5%2026-10-17 14:25
Kalshi◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%1.30I 76.92%NM 75.48%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71%1.9%2026-10-17 14:15