Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.61
assuming max odds 2.72
assuming max odds 3.76
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ADO Den Haag (Local): 37.40%; Groningen (Visit): 35.94%; Draw: 26.66%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.255%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.17%EV -2.39%E -0.918%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.03%EV -5.84%E -2.23%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.80%EV +0.255%E +0.068%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -8.35%E -3.28%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -0.012%E -0.003%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 09:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -11.00%E -4.62%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -13.74%E -5.73%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.17%EV -0.012%E -0.003%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 10:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.38%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.99%EV -2.96%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.63%EV -2.68%E -0.734%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.38%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.99%EV -2.96%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.63%EV -2.68%E -0.734%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.38%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.99%EV -2.96%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.63%EV -2.68%E -0.734%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.52%EV -3.52%E -1.36%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.59%EV -2.24%E -0.825%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.89%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-16 10:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.29%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.29%EV -5.84%E -2.23%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.29%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.29%EV -5.84%E -2.23%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 10:08 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.91%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -4.76%E -1.80%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -5.84%E -2.23%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -8.35%E -3.28%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 09:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 09:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -4.76%E -1.80%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.94%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.59%EV -5.76%E -2.29%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.35%EV -3.68%E -1.37%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 10:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.59%EV -5.76%E -2.29%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.35%EV -3.68%E -1.37%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 09:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -2.96%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.53%EV -6.13%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -4.76%E -1.80%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 09:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -5.84%E -2.23%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -4.76%E -1.80%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -7.26%E -2.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -7.26%E -2.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -7.26%E -2.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 09:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.26%E -2.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.86%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.99%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -4.76%E -1.80%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 10:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -4.76%E -1.80%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 10:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.30%EV -5.12%E -1.94%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -4.76%E -1.80%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-16 09:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-16 09:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-16 09:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -9.13%E -3.76%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -8.35%E -3.28%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-16 09:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -9.13%E -3.76%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.58%EV -8.35%E -3.28%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -9.13%E -3.76%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.58%EV -8.35%E -3.28%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.66%EV -11.37%E -4.80%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-16 10:03 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 10:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -6.56%E -2.52%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 10:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -10.15%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -14.68%E -4.59%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-16 10:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.83% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 27.00% | 0.1% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.01% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.07% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.92% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.01% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.07% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.92% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.97% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.92% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.23% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.64% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |