The School of Odds
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Tijuana v Santos Laguna

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 03:00 UTC

Final: Tijuana 4–1 Santos Laguna

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tijuana (Local)

Prediction 44.79%2.23fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.21%44.83%44.81%46.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.032.052.1654.05%49.20%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos Laguna (Visit)

Prediction 29.32%3.41fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.746%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%29.33%29.39%31.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.193.203.5035.09%31.39%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.89%3.86fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.427%
Kelly -0.580%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.48%25.84%25.80%27.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.553.8030.77%28.14%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tijuana (Local): 44.79%; Santos Laguna (Visit): 29.32%; Draw: 25.89%. For Santos Laguna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.65%EV -7.28%E -3.52%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV +2.61%E +0.746%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.75%EV -2.92%E -0.778%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 02:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.65%EV -7.28%E -3.52%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV +2.61%E +0.746%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.75%EV -2.92%E -0.778%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 02:40
Coolbet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.15%EV -5.49%E -2.60%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -0.320%E -0.094%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-26 02:10
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%EV -5.04%E -2.38%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.61%EV -0.906%E -0.268%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -2.92%E -0.778%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-26 01:51
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%EV -5.04%E -2.38%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.61%EV -0.906%E -0.268%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -2.92%E -0.778%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-26 01:51
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%EV -5.04%E -2.38%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.61%EV -0.906%E -0.268%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -2.92%E -0.778%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-26 01:51
GTbets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.45%EV -9.07%E -4.47%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.06%EV -1.49%E -0.444%K -0.632%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-26 01:21
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.79%EV -3.25%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.06%EV -2.37%E -0.712%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-26 02:46
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.43%EV -3.25%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.99%EV -2.96%E -0.894%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.58%EV -6.54%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 02:55
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -1.62%E -0.427%K -0.580%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 10:49
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.34%EV -11.31%E -5.71%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 08:35
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.47%EV -11.76%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 08:36
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.47%EV -11.76%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 08:35
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.47%EV -11.76%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 08:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.47%EV -11.76%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 08:36
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.47%EV -11.76%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 08:35
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.47%EV -11.76%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -3.25%E -0.985%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.24%EV -10.86%E -5.46%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.05%EV -3.84%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.70%EV -7.32%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-26 01:15
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.32%EV -9.07%E -4.47%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -4.72%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -1.62%E -0.427%K -0.580%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 10:50
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -5.93%E -2.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -5.51%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-26 02:45
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.93%E -2.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 02:29
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-26 02:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -13.10%E -6.75%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -10.68%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-20 10:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -13.10%E -6.75%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -10.68%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-20 08:35
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.24%EV -13.55%E -7.02%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.68%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-20 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.20%EV -14.00%E -7.29%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -6.18%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.98%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-26 02:40
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -5.04%E -2.38%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.65%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.68%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-26 02:40
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -5.04%E -2.38%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.65%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.68%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-26 02:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -3.69%E -1.72%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-26 02:29
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -5.93%E -2.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-26 02:55
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.93%E -2.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-26 02:45
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -5.04%E -2.38%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 02:45
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -10.41%E -5.21%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 02:35
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -12.65%E -6.49%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-26 00:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -12.65%E -6.49%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-26 02:45
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.65%E -6.49%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 07:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.35%EV -17.13%E -9.26%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.66%EV -9.12%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%EV -14.57%E -4.41%K -6.33%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-26 02:40
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -5.93%E -2.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.31%EV -10.58%E -3.47%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-26 02:29
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -5.93%E -2.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -8.09%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 02:55
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.41%E -5.21%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-26 02:30
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -15.86%E -4.88%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-26 02:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -15.86%E -4.88%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-26 02:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -15.86%E -4.88%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-26 02:29
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -15.86%E -4.88%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-26 02:29
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -14.44%E -7.56%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-26 01:51
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -12.65%E -6.49%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -12.05%E -4.02%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -11.98%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-26 02:46
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.20%EV -11.31%E -5.71%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.67%EV -13.51%E -4.58%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.13%EV -13.27%E -3.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-26 02:33
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -5.93%E -2.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -16.44%E -5.77%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-26 02:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.0%2026-10-26 02:55
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.49%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-10-26 02:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.11%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.54%1.7%2026-10-26 02:55
Matchbook◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.11%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.54%1.7%2026-10-26 02:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.79%2.0%2026-10-26 02:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.79%2.0%2026-10-26 02:55

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