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Tijuana v Puebla
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tijuana (Local)
Prediction 56.86%1.76fair odd
EV -0.490%
Edge -0.280%
Kelly -0.653%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.87%56.71%56.86%58.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.651.651.7564.52%60.58%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Puebla (Visit)
Prediction 19.03%5.25fair odd
EV +4.67%
Edge +0.849%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.048%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.58%19.13%19.00%21.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.654.655.5025.00%21.50%21.51%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.11%4.15fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.284%
Kelly -0.376%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.90%24.16%24.14%26.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.763.754.1029.41%26.59%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tijuana (Local): 56.86%; Puebla (Visit): 19.03%; Draw: 24.11%. For Puebla (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.10%EV -5.04%E -3.02%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.64%EV +4.67%E +0.849%K +1.04%G +0.048% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV -3.58%E -0.894%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-17 03:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.38%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.40%EV -0.277%E -0.053%K -0.065%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.22%EV -4.06%E -1.02%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-17 02:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.50%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 18.47%EV -0.467%E -0.089%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 24.03%EV -3.09%E -0.770%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.50%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 18.47%EV -0.467%E -0.089%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 24.03%EV -3.09%E -0.770%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.98%EV -11.86%E -7.65%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.58%EV -1.04%E -0.200%K -0.247%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-17 02:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -5.04%E -3.02%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -4.84%E -0.969%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.58%E -0.894%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-17 02:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -4.84%E -0.969%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 02:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -8.45%E -5.25%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -4.84%E -0.969%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -1.17%E -0.284%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-17 03:02 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -4.84%E -0.969%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -4.84%E -0.969%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-17 02:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -4.84%E -0.969%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-17 02:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -8.45%E -5.25%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -4.84%E -0.969%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.16%EV -2.76%E -1.62%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV -8.65%E -1.80%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.83%EV -2.85%E -0.708%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-17 02:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -8.65%E -1.80%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 02:58 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -8.65%E -1.80%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 02:48 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -9.02%E -5.64%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -8.65%E -1.80%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-17 03:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.60%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-17 03:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -9.60%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -9.60%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -0.490%E -0.280%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -10.55%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -0.490%E -0.280%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -10.55%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.07%EV -9.59%E -6.03%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -10.55%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 23.63%EV -7.43%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -11.51%E -2.47%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -11.51%E -2.47%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.87%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.36%EV -12.27%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-17 02:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -5.04%E -3.02%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -14.36%E -3.19%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 02:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -14.36%E -3.19%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 02:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.00%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.36%E -3.19%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -18.04%E -5.31%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.00%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.36%E -3.19%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -18.04%E -5.31%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-17 02:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.00%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.36%E -3.19%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -18.04%E -5.31%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.00%EV -6.18%E -3.74%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.36%E -3.19%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -18.04%E -5.31%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-17 02:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.34%EV -11.86%E -7.65%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.41%EV -14.36%E -3.19%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-10-17 03:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -17.21%E -3.96%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -17.21%E -3.96%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -17.21%E -3.96%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -17.21%E -3.96%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -17.21%E -3.96%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -17.21%E -3.96%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 03:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.52%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.06%EV -17.21%E -3.96%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-17 02:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -5.04%E -3.02%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -17.60%E -4.06%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-17 02:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -7.88%E -4.87%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -17.60%E -4.06%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-17 02:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.36%EV -10.16%E -6.43%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.34%EV -18.17%E -4.22%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-17 02:58 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.87%EV -5.61%E -3.38%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -20.07%E -4.78%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.87%EV -5.61%E -3.38%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -20.07%E -4.78%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.87%EV -5.61%E -3.38%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -20.07%E -4.78%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.17%EV -6.74%E -4.11%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -20.07%E -4.78%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.13%EV -10.73%E -6.83%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.24%EV -23.88%E -5.97%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.63%EV -16.83%E -4.88%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71% | 1.1% | 2026-10-17 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.34% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.61% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 1.4% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.34% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.61% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 1.4% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.34% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.61% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 1.4% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.70% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40% | 3.7% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.37% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.53% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10% | 3.8% | 2026-10-17 03:05 |