Language:English
Tigres v Toluca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tigres (Local)
Prediction 32.65%3.06fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.16%32.69%32.63%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.792.9238.46%35.95%35.84%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toluca (Visit)
Prediction 40.65%2.46fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.31%40.57%40.63%41.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.252.3746.51%43.99%44.44%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.70%3.75fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.97%26.74%26.74%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.403.443.6032.26%29.45%29.07%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tigres (Local): 32.65%; Toluca (Visit): 40.65%; Draw: 26.70%. For Toluca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.37, with an expected value of -3.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.63%EV -4.65%E -1.59%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.38%EV -4.06%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.99%EV -5.77%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 20:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.61%EV -4.65%E -1.59%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.34%EV -4.06%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.03%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 09:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.61%EV -4.65%E -1.59%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.34%EV -4.06%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.03%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 09:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.80%EV -4.98%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.61%EV -4.47%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.59%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.30%E -1.83%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 15:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.94%E -2.43%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.90%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 04:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.94%E -2.43%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -4.47%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.94%E -2.43%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -4.47%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 18:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.94%E -2.43%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-05 06:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -6.94%E -2.43%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 04:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -6.94%E -2.43%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 04:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -6.94%E -2.43%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-04 06:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.62%EV -7.26%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.45%EV -6.91%E -3.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.93%EV -8.17%E -2.37%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-03 04:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.66%EV -7.92%E -2.81%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.57%EV -7.72%E -3.40%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.77%EV -8.17%E -2.37%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-03 04:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.78%EV -3.66%E -1.54%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -5.23%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 03:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.90%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 04:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.90%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 04:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.90%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -6.50%E -2.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 04:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 06:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 04:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 04:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 08:31 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 12:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 32.39%EV -9.22%E -3.32%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.50%EV -11.79%E -5.43%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.10%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-05 06:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.26%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.69%E -2.45%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.26%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.69%E -2.45%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-30 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.26%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.69%E -2.45%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.26%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.69%E -2.45%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.26%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.69%E -2.45%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.26%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.69%E -2.45%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.26%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.69%E -2.45%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -10.57%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-30 21:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 04:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -10.57%E -4.80%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -7.90%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-05 06:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.57%E -4.80%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-05 08:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -17.24%E -5.56%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-03 04:01 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -17.24%E -5.56%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-03 04:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -17.24%E -5.56%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-03 04:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.20%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -17.24%E -5.56%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-03 04:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -11.83%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -11.91%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-05 04:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -11.83%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-30 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -11.83%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-30 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -11.83%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-30 18:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.83%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.57%E -4.80%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.91%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-04 09:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.65%EV -11.83%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.63%EV -11.79%E -5.43%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -11.91%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-05 04:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -13.47%E -5.08%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -8.54%E -3.79%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.23%EV -15.10%E -5.81%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.19%EV -12.60%E -5.86%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.58%EV -13.24%E -4.07%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-10-05 05:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.07%EV -15.10%E -5.81%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 39.63%EV -11.79%E -5.43%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.30%EV -15.91%E -5.05%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-09-30 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 1.0% | 2026-10-05 04:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.44% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.49% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.07% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 34.54% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.29% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 34.54% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.29% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 34.54% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.29% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 34.47% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.26% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |