The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Tigres v León

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 03:13 UTC

Final: Tigres 0–2 León

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres (Local)

Prediction 45.16%2.21fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.44%45.27%45.11%47.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.032.042.1552.91%49.20%49.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

León (Visit)

Prediction 27.50%3.64fair odd
EV +3.12%
Edge +0.833%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.58%27.42%27.54%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.403.7532.26%29.66%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.34%3.66fair odd
EV +2.53%
Edge +0.675%
Kelly +0.921%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.72%27.30%27.35%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.343.303.7532.79%29.99%30.30%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tigres (Local): 45.16%; León (Visit): 27.50%; Draw: 27.34%. For León (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.48%EV -8.78%E -4.35%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.58%EV +3.12%E +0.833%K +1.14%G +0.036%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.94%EV -2.66%E -0.748%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 02:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.49%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.28%EV +1.20%E +0.326%K +0.448%G +0.005%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -2.94%E -0.827%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-21 00:36
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.49%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.28%EV +1.20%E +0.326%K +0.448%G +0.005%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -2.94%E -0.827%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-21 00:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.73%EV -4.26%E -2.01%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV +0.375%E +0.103%K +0.141%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.70%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-21 02:20
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.73%EV -4.26%E -2.01%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV +0.375%E +0.103%K +0.141%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.70%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-21 03:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.73%EV -4.26%E -2.01%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV +0.375%E +0.103%K +0.141%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.70%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-21 02:20
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.04%EV -2.91%E -1.35%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.13%EV -1.83%E -0.511%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.83%EV -4.85%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-21 02:55
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -2.38%E -0.669%K -0.932%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.67%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-21 03:03
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.75%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 02:24
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.75%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 01:19
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.75%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 14:34
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -3.75%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-21 03:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.19%EV -12.84%E -6.66%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -3.75%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 02:40
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 02:20
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 02:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 02:20
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 02:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 02:20
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 02:20
GTbets🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -6.97%E -3.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.16%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 13:25
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.92%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.36%EV -6.50%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.72%EV +2.53%E +0.675%K +0.921%G +0.023%3.7%2026-10-21 03:04
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.50%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 03:00
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.50%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 19:10
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.50%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 03:02
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.50%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 02:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.50%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 02:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.25%EV -10.59%E -5.35%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -7.88%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.51%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-21 02:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.25%EV -10.59%E -5.35%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -7.88%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.51%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-21 02:20
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.38%EV -11.04%E -5.60%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -7.88%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -12.51%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-21 02:20
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.25%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 03:00
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.60%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -9.25%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 03:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.60%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -9.25%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 20:55
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.25%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 02:55
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.25%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.51%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-21 03:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.12%EV -11.49%E -5.86%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -9.25%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.08%EV -13.87%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-21 02:20
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.04%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 02:55
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 03:05
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 03:05
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-21 03:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.15%EV -9.23%E -4.59%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.01%EV -10.90%E -3.36%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.85%EV -7.58%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 03:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.87%EV -11.94%E -6.12%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.35%EV -12.00%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -13.87%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-21 02:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.24%EV -14.65%E -7.75%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -12.00%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.04%EV -16.61%E -5.44%K -8.10%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-21 02:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.99%EV -11.94%E -6.12%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -13.38%E -4.25%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.16%EV -11.69%E -3.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 02:45
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.75%E -4.76%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.51%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-21 03:01
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -14.75%E -4.76%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-21 02:40
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -11.94%E -6.12%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -14.75%E -4.76%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-21 03:05
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -14.75%E -4.76%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-21 03:05
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -14.75%E -4.76%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-21 03:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -14.75%E -4.76%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-21 03:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -14.75%E -4.76%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-21 03:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.05%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%1.8%2026-10-21 03:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.05%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%1.8%2026-10-21 03:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.65%1.9%2026-10-21 03:10
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%2.1%2026-10-21 02:50
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.21%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%4.3%2026-10-21 03:10
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%8.4%2026-10-21 03:01