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Tigres v Atlético San Luis

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres (Local)

Prediction 68.30%1.46fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -9.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.73%68.16%68.23%70.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.4176.92%73.83%73.53%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético San Luis (Visit)

Prediction 11.84%8.45fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -0.508%
Kelly -0.579%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.45%11.89%11.91%14.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.587.508.1016.00%13.20%13.33%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.86%5.04fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.250%
Kelly +0.311%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.18%19.96%19.86%22.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.524.535.1025.00%22.12%22.10%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tigres (Local): 68.30%; Atlético San Luis (Visit): 11.84%; Draw: 19.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel1.32I 75.76%NM 70.23%EV -9.84%E -7.45%K -30.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -5.29%E -0.662%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.18%EV +1.28%E +0.250%K +0.311%G +0.004%7.9%2026-07-12 20:13
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -5.74%E -4.16%K -15.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.29%E -0.662%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -0.710%E -0.142%K -0.177%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 20:14
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -7.11%E -5.23%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -5.29%E -0.662%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -0.710%E -0.142%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-13 12:15
SportsBet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -7.79%E -5.77%K -22.26%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -8.25%E -1.07%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -0.710%E -0.142%K -0.177%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 20:14
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -11.21%E -8.62%K -37.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -11.21%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -5.67%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-12 20:48
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 67.99%EV -9.16%E -6.88%K -27.75%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.56%EV -14.77%E -2.05%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.45%EV -7.66%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-17 10:35
1xBet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.02%EV -6.42%E -4.69%K -17.36%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.50%EV -4.11%E -0.508%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.48%EV -9.65%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-14 09:40
Marathon Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.18%EV -7.11%E -5.23%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.45%EV -4.11%E -0.508%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.38%EV -9.65%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-14 09:40
Betclic (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 68.22%EV -10.52%E -8.03%K -33.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -11.21%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.86%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-17 01:05
NordicBet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -3.69%E -2.62%K -9.00%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -12.40%E -1.68%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -11.63%E -2.61%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 21:45
Betsson1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -3.69%E -2.62%K -9.00%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -12.40%E -1.68%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -11.63%E -2.61%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 21:44
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 65.79%EV -9.16%E -6.88%K -27.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.00%EV -26.01%E -4.16%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.21%EV -14.01%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-12 20:12
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -7.11%E -5.23%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -11.21%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -20.57%E -5.14%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-14 09:40
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -7.11%E -5.23%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -11.21%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -20.57%E -5.14%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-14 09:40
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -7.11%E -5.23%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -11.21%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -20.57%E -5.14%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-14 11:29
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -7.11%E -5.23%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -11.21%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -20.57%E -5.14%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-14 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 65.45%6.67I 14.99%NM 13.64%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.91%9.9%2026-07-17 22:20
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 66.47%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.92%16.6%2026-07-15 02:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-13 08:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-13 08:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-13 08:14