The School of Odds
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Santos Laguna v Pumas

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 03:10 UTC

Final: Santos Laguna 2–0 Pumas

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos Laguna (Local)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.71%39.31%38.94%43.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.292.302.4850.00%43.63%43.48%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pumas (Visit)

Prediction 34.93%2.86fair odd
EV +8.29%
Edge +2.68%
Kelly +3.95%
Growth +0.328%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%34.64%35.03%35.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.653.1040.00%36.86%37.74%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.03%3.84fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.288%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%26.05%26.04%27.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.8030.30%28.42%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos Laguna (Local): 39.04%; Pumas (Visit): 34.93%; Draw: 26.03%. For Pumas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -12.94%E -5.80%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.19%EV +8.29%E +2.68%K +3.95%G +0.328%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -1.10%E -0.288%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 02:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -12.94%E -5.80%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.19%EV +8.29%E +2.68%K +3.95%G +0.328%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -1.10%E -0.288%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 02:15
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -8.26%E -3.51%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 03:05
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.95%EV -16.46%E -7.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 02:11
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.95%EV -16.46%E -7.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 02:10
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.95%EV -16.46%E -7.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 02:10
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.95%EV -16.46%E -7.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 02:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.95%EV -16.46%E -7.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 02:10
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.95%EV -16.46%E -7.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 02:15
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.95%EV -16.46%E -7.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV +3.05%E +1.04%K +1.57%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 02:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -18.02%E -8.58%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -0.439%E -0.154%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -10.21%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-22 02:10
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -18.02%E -8.58%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -0.439%E -0.154%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -10.21%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-22 02:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -18.02%E -8.58%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -0.439%E -0.154%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -10.21%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-22 02:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -19.19%E -9.27%K -17.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV -0.439%E -0.154%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-22 02:15
Pinnacle🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01%EV -3.18%E -1.28%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.92%EV -3.23%E -1.17%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.07%EV -3.44%E -0.927%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 03:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.31%EV -3.96%E -1.61%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.91%EV -3.23%E -1.17%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.79%EV -2.40%E -0.639%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 02:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.31%EV -3.96%E -1.61%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.91%EV -3.23%E -1.17%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.79%EV -2.40%E -0.639%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 02:25
GTbets🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.93%EV -5.92%E -2.45%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -3.93%E -1.43%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.96%EV -9.42%E -2.71%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 02:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -21.92%E -10.96%K -21.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.17%EV -3.93%E -1.43%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -14.11%E -4.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-22 02:10
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.74%EV -9.04%E -3.88%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.80%EV -4.28%E -1.56%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 02:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 39.85%EV -9.82%E -4.25%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.85%EV -4.98%E -1.83%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 02:15
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.19%EV -5.68%E -2.10%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.03%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 02:19
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.68%E -2.10%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 02:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -7.43%E -2.80%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-22 02:20
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -7.43%E -2.80%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-22 03:05
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.43%E -2.80%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-22 02:41
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -7.43%E -2.80%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 02:49
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -7.43%E -2.80%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-22 02:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -12.16%E -5.41%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -7.43%E -2.80%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 02:20
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.72%EV -8.47%E -3.23%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.70%E -1.000%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-22 03:00
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.72%EV -8.47%E -3.23%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.70%E -1.000%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-22 02:59
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -5.53%E -2.28%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -8.47%E -3.23%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.21%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 03:00
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -5.53%E -2.28%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -8.47%E -3.23%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.21%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 03:00
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -9.17%E -3.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-22 03:04
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -9.17%E -3.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-22 03:00
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.18%EV -9.17%E -3.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 02:25
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.17%E -3.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-22 02:41
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -12.16%E -5.41%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -9.17%E -3.53%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-22 02:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.58%EV -13.33%E -6.01%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.19%EV -10.22%E -3.98%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -12.81%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-22 02:29
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -10.92%E -4.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-22 03:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.78%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.98%EV -10.92%E -4.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 02:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.99%EV -12.16%E -5.41%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.82%EV -11.97%E -4.75%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -12.81%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-22 02:49
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -7.09%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -12.67%E -5.07%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-22 03:05
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.67%E -5.07%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.11%E -4.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-22 02:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.67%E -5.07%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.11%E -4.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-22 02:20
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.67%E -5.07%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.11%E -4.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-22 02:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.67%E -5.07%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.11%E -4.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-22 02:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.67%E -5.07%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.11%E -4.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-22 02:20
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -14.11%E -6.42%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -12.67%E -5.07%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-22 02:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03%1.1%2026-10-22 02:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03%1.1%2026-10-22 02:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03%1.1%2026-10-22 02:35
Matchbook◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03%1.1%2026-10-22 02:55
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.83%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95%1.4%2026-10-22 03:00
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.24%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.28%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48%1.9%2026-10-22 03:05