The School of Odds
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Santos Laguna v Necaxa

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 23:00 UTC

Final: Santos Laguna 1–0 Necaxa

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos Laguna (Local)

Prediction 52.69%1.90fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.70%52.76%52.62%55.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.751.751.8560.61%57.11%57.14%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Necaxa (Visit)

Prediction 23.87%4.19fair odd
EV -0.475%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.70%23.81%23.92%24.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.804.1728.57%26.11%26.32%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.44%4.27fair odd
EV -0.376%
Edge -0.089%
Kelly -0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.17%23.43%23.46%24.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.873.854.2528.17%25.85%25.97%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos Laguna (Local): 52.69%; Necaxa (Visit): 23.87%; Draw: 23.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.25, with an expected value of -0.376%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.52%E -1.36%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -3.89%E -0.949%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 22:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -2.52%E -1.36%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%EV -3.89%E -0.949%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 22:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -3.57%E -1.95%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.83%EV -3.34%E -0.824%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.43%EV -3.42%E -0.831%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -3.57%E -1.95%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.83%EV -3.34%E -0.824%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.43%EV -3.42%E -0.831%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 14:20
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.57%E -1.95%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-01 04:30
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.76%EV -5.15%E -2.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.20%EV -0.475%E -0.114%K -0.150%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.04%EV -1.55%E -0.369%K -0.484%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-01 22:45
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -5.15%E -2.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 18:10
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.36%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.89%EV -0.952%E -0.229%K -0.302%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.92%E -1.77%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 22:35
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.25%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.73%EV -10.26%E -2.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.02%EV -5.30%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 22:50
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:30
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:30
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:30
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:30
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -6.21%E -3.49%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 22:30
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.73%E -3.81%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.14%EV -0.952%E -0.229%K -0.302%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%EV -0.376%E -0.089%K -0.116%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 22:50
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -6.73%E -3.81%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.89%E -0.949%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 22:45
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.73%E -3.81%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -5.73%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.18%EV -5.06%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 22:40
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -6.73%E -3.81%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.28%EV -7.26%E -4.13%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.60%EV -10.74%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.12%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 07:15
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 22:35
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 22:49
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 22:49
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -9.75%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 22:45
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -5.73%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -9.75%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 22:45
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -5.73%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -9.75%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 22:45
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.36%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.50%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.41%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 22:45
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.36%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.50%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.41%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 22:45
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -14.08%E -3.91%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -15.61%E -4.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-01 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -14.08%E -3.91%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -15.61%E -4.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-01 18:10
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.36%EV -8.32%E -4.78%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -12.89%E -3.53%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 22:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.36%EV -8.32%E -4.78%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -12.89%E -3.53%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 22:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.36%EV -8.32%E -4.78%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -12.89%E -3.53%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 22:30
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -8.84%E -5.11%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -14.08%E -3.91%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-01 22:45
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -8.84%E -5.11%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -14.08%E -3.91%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-01 20:07
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.48%EV -9.37%E -5.45%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%EV -12.89%E -3.53%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 22:25
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -9.90%E -5.79%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 22:35
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.95%EV -9.90%E -5.79%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 22:50
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -9.31%E -2.45%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 22:34
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.93%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -10.50%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.61%E -4.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 22:45
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.93%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -10.50%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.61%E -4.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.93%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -10.50%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.61%E -4.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 22:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.93%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -10.50%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.61%E -4.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 22:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.27%EV -11.48%E -6.83%K -16.88%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.19%EV -13.36%E -3.68%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.54%EV -12.57%E -3.37%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-01 22:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.23%EV -11.48%E -6.83%K -16.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -14.08%E -3.91%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 22:40
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.18%EV -12.00%E -7.19%K -17.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.90%EV -16.47%E -4.70%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-01 22:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.35%EV -12.00%E -7.19%K -17.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -16.47%E -4.70%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.15%EV -16.78%E -4.73%K -6.58%G +0.000%16.6%2026-11-01 22:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -13.06%E -7.91%K -20.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -4.53%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -3.89%E -0.949%K -1.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-01 22:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-11-01 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-11-01 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-11-01 22:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%1.5%2026-11-01 22:50
Matchbook◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%1.5%2026-11-01 22:50
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.53%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-11-01 22:50

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