The School of Odds
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Pumas v Cruz Azul

2026-10-12 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pumas (Local)

Prediction 29.06%3.44fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.08%29.01%30.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.103.3034.48%32.21%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 45.14%2.22fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.18%45.12%45.15%45.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.032.052.1051.81%49.32%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%25.80%25.84%26.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.603.7030.30%28.10%27.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Pumas (Local): 29.06%; Cruz Azul (Visit): 45.14%; Draw: 25.79%. For Pumas (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -4.09%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-28 13:45
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -5.20%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 13:27
1xBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.96%EV -7.00%E -3.40%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-28 16:29
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.99%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-28 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 28.95%EV -7.57%E -2.38%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.12%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.93%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-28 16:22
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -8.45%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.99%EV -6.10%E -2.93%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 13:24
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.90%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-28 15:15
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -11.35%E -3.72%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-28 13:45
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -11.35%E -3.72%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-28 13:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 28.94%EV -11.93%E -3.94%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.43%EV -12.87%E -6.67%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.64%EV -11.80%E -3.45%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-28 13:25
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-28 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.81%E -4.27%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-28 13:55
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -15.71%E -5.42%K -8.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.18%EV -11.97%E -6.14%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.11%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.47%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-28 13:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 29.19%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.33%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%6.1%2026-09-28 19:00