The School of Odds
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Puebla v Monterrey

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 01:01 UTC

Final: Puebla 1–4 Monterrey

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Puebla (Local)

Prediction 24.87%4.02fair odd
EV +3.23%
Edge +0.778%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.99%24.74%24.84%26.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.723.704.1530.30%26.88%27.03%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monterrey (Visit)

Prediction 49.36%2.03fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.87%49.49%49.35%51.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.851.851.9558.48%53.93%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.77%3.88fair odd
EV -0.788%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.277%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.97%25.77%25.81%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.603.8530.30%28.04%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puebla (Local): 24.87%; Monterrey (Visit): 49.36%; Draw: 25.77%. For Puebla (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.99%EV +3.23%E +0.778%K +1.03%G +0.033%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -3.37%E -0.897%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 00:54
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.502%E -0.125%K -0.167%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.93%EV -6.72%E -3.55%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.00%EV -0.788%E -0.205%K -0.277%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-22 00:30
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.502%E -0.125%K -0.167%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.93%EV -6.72%E -3.55%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.00%EV -0.788%E -0.205%K -0.277%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-22 00:30
Pinnacle🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 24.63%EV -2.49%E -0.636%K -0.853%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.03%EV -4.74%E -2.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.34%EV -1.82%E -0.477%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-22 00:50
GTbets🎯3.91I 25.58%NM 23.93%EV -2.74%E -0.701%K -0.942%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.58%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.49%EV -5.43%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-22 00:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -2.99%E -0.766%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.84%EV -10.67%E -5.89%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -2.99%E -0.766%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -11.16%E -6.20%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-22 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.88%EV -3.49%E -0.899%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.51%EV -3.76%E -1.93%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -2.85%E -0.756%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-22 00:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.88%EV -3.49%E -0.899%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.51%EV -3.76%E -1.93%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.61%EV -2.85%E -0.756%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-22 00:40
1xBet🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.73%EV -3.49%E -0.899%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.20%EV -3.76%E -1.93%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.07%EV -5.17%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 00:59
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 00:39
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 00:40
BetUS🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.70%E -4.12%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -4.65%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-22 00:40
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 00:30
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 00:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 00:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 00:30
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 00:30
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 00:30
betPARX🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 00:30
SportsBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-22 00:44
Bet Right🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.78%EV -9.18%E -4.99%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -8.52%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-22 00:35
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -7.96%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -4.74%E -2.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 00:58
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -7.96%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -4.74%E -2.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 00:58
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.96%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-22 00:35
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.96%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 00:35
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.96%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 00:35
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.73%E -3.00%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 01:00
PlayUp🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -7.21%E -3.84%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.23%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-22 00:45
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.50%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.95%EV -11.65%E -6.51%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 00:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.50%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.95%EV -11.65%E -6.51%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 00:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.50%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.95%EV -11.65%E -6.51%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 00:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.05%EV -12.64%E -7.14%K -16.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -11.10%E -3.22%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-22 00:30
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -6.22%E -3.28%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.52%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 01:00
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-22 00:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-22 00:50
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -11.16%E -6.20%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 00:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.55%EV -12.15%E -6.82%K -15.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -12.38%E -3.64%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-22 00:45
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -9.68%E -5.29%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.38%E -3.64%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-22 00:50
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -11.16%E -6.20%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 00:59
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.96%E -4.53%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-22 00:35
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.96%E -4.53%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-22 00:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.96%E -4.53%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-22 00:30
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.69%E -4.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.96%E -4.53%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-22 00:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.44%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 50.02%EV -15.60%E -9.12%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.53%EV -13.67%E -4.08%K -5.82%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-22 00:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -17.91%E -5.43%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -11.16%E -6.20%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -9.81%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-22 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-10-22 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-10-22 00:55
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-10-22 01:00
Matchbook◎3.95I 25.32%NM 24.93%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.58%1.5%2026-10-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 24.85%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.32%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.83%1.9%2026-10-22 01:00
Smarkets◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.02%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.68%2.5%2026-10-22 01:00