Language:English
Puebla v León
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Puebla (Local)
Prediction 32.46%3.08fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -0.971%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.03%32.48%32.38%34.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.852.853.0238.46%35.10%35.09%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
León (Visit)
Prediction 39.55%2.53fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.13%39.57%39.59%41.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.292.302.4648.31%43.74%43.48%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -0.811%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%27.95%28.03%29.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.293.303.5033.33%30.40%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puebla (Local): 32.46%; León (Visit): 39.55%; Draw: 27.99%. For Puebla (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.02, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.65%EV -1.96%E -0.650%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.33%EV -6.28%E -2.65%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.03%EV -4.55%E -1.33%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 18:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -2.61%E -0.870%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -11.02%E -4.90%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -2.61%E -0.870%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -11.02%E -4.90%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-30 18:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.70%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.19%EV -7.07%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.11%EV -5.95%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 03:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.33%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.77%EV -2.72%E -1.11%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 00:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.30%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.74%EV -2.72%E -1.11%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.96%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 09:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.30%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.74%EV -2.72%E -1.11%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.96%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 09:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.81%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.81%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.81%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.81%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.81%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.81%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.81%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 21:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-02 04:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -11.02%E -4.90%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -6.51%E -2.26%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.25%EV -6.67%E -2.83%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.59%EV -9.31%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 00:13 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -6.51%E -2.26%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 13:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -6.51%E -2.26%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 13:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.06%EV -6.51%E -2.26%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.41%EV -14.58%E -6.75%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-30 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.06%EV -6.51%E -2.26%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.41%EV -14.58%E -6.75%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-30 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.06%EV -6.51%E -2.26%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.41%EV -14.58%E -6.75%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-30 18:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -7.48%E -2.62%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.32%EV -7.46%E -3.19%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.40%EV -9.31%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 00:08 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -7.48%E -2.62%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -11.02%E -4.90%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-03 13:26 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59%EV -7.48%E -2.62%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.30%EV -13.79%E -6.33%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.12%EV -7.07%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-02 01:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.03%EV -7.48%E -2.62%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.33%EV -15.37%E -7.18%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-30 18:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -9.10%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -5.09%E -2.12%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -2.03%E -0.580%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 06:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -9.10%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -7.07%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -2.03%E -0.580%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 00:13 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -9.10%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -7.07%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -2.03%E -0.580%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 00:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -9.10%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -2.03%E -0.580%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 10:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -9.10%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.83%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 03:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -9.10%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.83%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 03:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.09%E -2.12%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 13:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -7.07%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 03:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 01:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.09%E -2.12%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 12:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -16.02%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-02 04:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -16.02%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-02 04:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -16.02%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-02 04:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -16.02%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-02 04:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.99%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 39.63%EV -12.21%E -5.50%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.38%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-10-05 07:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.10%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 41.31%EV -18.14%E -8.76%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-09-30 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-03 00:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -14.95%E -5.70%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -9.05%E -3.93%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 03:31 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.11%EV -15.60%E -6.00%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%EV -13.00%E -5.91%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-10-03 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46% | 2.0% | 2026-10-05 09:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.31% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.66% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 03:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.80% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 40.50% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.70% | 16.5% | 2026-10-03 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93% | 171.1% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93% | 171.1% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 33.11% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 34.36% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 32.52% | 174.5% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |