The School of Odds
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Puebla v León

2026-10-10 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Puebla (Local)

Prediction 31.36%3.19fair odd
EV -5.93%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.45%31.29%31.44%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.0037.04%34.65%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

León (Visit)

Prediction 41.19%2.43fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.16%41.21%41.11%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.212.202.3048.31%45.29%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV -5.29%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.01%27.50%27.45%28.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.283.323.4532.26%30.47%30.12%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Puebla (Local): 31.36%; León (Visit): 41.19%; Draw: 27.45%. For León (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.30, with an expected value of -5.26%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.26%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-28 13:03
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.49%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -9.38%E -4.27%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-28 15:10
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.50%EV -7.81%E -2.66%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.89%EV -8.86%E -2.67%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-28 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.53%EV -8.43%E -2.89%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.74%EV -6.91%E -3.06%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.73%EV -8.86%E -2.67%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-28 13:00
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.26%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.29%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-28 13:05
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.26%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-28 12:59
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-28 13:20
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-28 13:20
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.44%E -5.32%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-28 13:00
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.44%E -5.32%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-28 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.44%E -5.32%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-28 13:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -9.06%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.44%E -5.32%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-28 13:00
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -9.69%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.21%E -4.68%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-28 13:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.59%EV -10.00%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.41%EV -14.74%E -7.12%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -10.78%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-28 12:59
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.38%E -4.27%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 13:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.38%E -4.27%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 13:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -15.33%E -5.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.16%EV -11.44%E -5.32%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.09%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-28 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 32.67%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.16%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.17%7.0%2026-09-28 19:30