The School of Odds
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Pachuca v Cruz Azul

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 03:10 UTC

Final: Pachuca 1–2 Cruz Azul

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pachuca (Local)

Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.394%
Kelly -0.567%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%30.18%30.03%32.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.973.003.2837.74%33.62%33.33%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 43.92%2.28fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.75%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.93%43.81%44.03%46.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.132.122.3351.28%46.91%47.17%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.328%
Kelly -0.446%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%26.01%25.94%26.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.503.8031.25%28.53%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pachuca (Local): 30.09%; Cruz Azul (Visit): 43.92%; Draw: 25.99%. For Cruz Azul (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.56%EV +2.33%E +1.00%K +1.75%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -3.85%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-22 02:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.56%EV +2.33%E +1.00%K +1.75%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -3.85%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-22 02:15
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -1.18%E -0.525%K -0.946%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 01:15
GTbets🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.58%EV -10.32%E -3.46%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.83%EV -1.18%E -0.525%K -0.946%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.59%EV -8.00%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-21 16:25
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.17%EV -2.06%E -0.924%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 02:23
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.17%EV -2.06%E -0.924%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 02:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.17%EV -2.06%E -0.924%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 02:15
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.17%EV -2.06%E -0.924%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 02:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.17%EV -2.06%E -0.924%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 02:14
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.17%EV -2.06%E -0.924%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 02:15
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.23%E -4.99%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.17%EV -2.06%E -0.924%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 02:15
Pinnacle🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 29.50%EV -1.29%E -0.394%K -0.567%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.99%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.51%EV -5.15%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-22 02:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.21%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.26%E -1.95%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -1.25%E -0.328%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 02:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.21%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.26%E -1.95%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -1.25%E -0.328%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 02:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -17.24%E -6.27%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -4.26%E -1.95%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 02:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -17.24%E -6.27%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -4.26%E -1.95%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 02:15
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -17.24%E -6.27%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -4.26%E -1.95%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 02:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -17.24%E -6.27%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.15%EV -5.13%E -2.38%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 02:15
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.57%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -5.15%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-22 02:19
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.57%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 02:50
Fliff🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -11.22%E -3.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -5.57%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-22 03:05
1xBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.66%EV -9.12%E -3.02%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.26%EV -6.01%E -2.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 02:15
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -6.89%E -3.25%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 02:14
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -6.89%E -3.25%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.34%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 02:15
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.89%E -3.25%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 02:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.89%E -3.25%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 02:15
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 03:05
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -5.20%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-22 02:49
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -2.55%E -0.679%K -0.926%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 03:05
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -2.55%E -0.679%K -0.926%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 03:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 03:05
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 02:50
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 02:50
Bet Right🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -11.22%E -3.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.85%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 02:40
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -8.21%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -8.65%E -4.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-22 03:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.24%EV -20.25%E -7.64%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.07%EV -8.65%E -4.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.70%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.65%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-22 02:15
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-22 02:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-22 02:55
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-22 02:49
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-22 02:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -13.33%E -4.63%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 02:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.71%EV -13.63%E -4.75%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.99%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%EV -12.94%E -3.86%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-22 02:59
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.24%E -4.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-22 02:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.24%E -4.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-22 02:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.24%E -4.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-22 02:20
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.24%E -4.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-22 02:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 29.57%EV -10.62%E -3.58%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.36%EV -13.04%E -6.59%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.06%EV -12.42%E -3.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-22 03:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.24%EV -13.48%E -6.84%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-22 02:25
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.68%EV -15.74%E -5.62%K -8.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -14.36%E -7.36%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-22 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.66%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-10-22 02:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.66%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-10-22 02:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.66%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-10-22 02:35
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-10-22 03:05
Smarkets◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.0%2026-10-22 03:05
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 29.64%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.01%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.35%3.8%2026-10-22 03:05