The School of Odds
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Necaxa v FC Juárez

2026-10-24 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Necaxa (Local)

Prediction 48.58%2.06fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.08%48.58%48.58%48.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.891.9756.18%53.11%52.91%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Juárez (Visit)

Prediction 26.61%3.76fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.39%26.61%26.61%26.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.453.6531.25%29.17%28.99%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.81%4.03fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.70%24.81%24.81%25.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.663.703.9029.41%27.29%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Necaxa (Local): 48.58%; FC Juárez (Visit): 26.61%; Draw: 24.81%. For FC Juárez (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.65, with an expected value of -2.87%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.90%EV -4.31%E -2.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.39%EV -2.87%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.70%EV -3.23%E -0.828%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-17 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.90%EV -4.31%E -2.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.39%EV -2.87%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.70%EV -3.23%E -0.828%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-17 01:30
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.44%EV -7.71%E -4.06%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.19%E -2.21%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 01:30
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.58%EV -8.19%E -4.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.19%E -2.21%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 01:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.58%EV -8.19%E -4.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.19%E -2.21%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 01:30
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.58%EV -8.19%E -4.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.19%E -2.21%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 01:30
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.58%EV -8.19%E -4.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.19%E -2.21%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 01:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.58%EV -8.19%E -4.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.19%E -2.21%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 01:30
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.58%EV -8.19%E -4.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -8.19%E -2.21%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 01:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.10%EV -9.65%E -5.19%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -10.85%E -3.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -11.91%E -3.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 01:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.10%EV -9.65%E -5.19%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -10.85%E -3.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -11.91%E -3.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 01:30
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -10.13%E -5.48%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -10.85%E -3.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.91%E -3.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.31%EV -11.11%E -6.07%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -12.18%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.90%EV -11.91%E -3.36%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-17 01:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.08%EV -13.54%E -7.60%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.75%EV -14.84%E -4.64%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.17%EV -15.64%E -4.60%K -6.51%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-17 01:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 39.11%2.08I 48.08%NM 36.10%3.03I 33.00%NM 24.78%33.2%2026-10-17 05:05