The School of Odds
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Necaxa v FC Juárez

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 01:00 UTC

Final: Necaxa 1–1 FC Juárez

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Necaxa (Local)

Prediction 54.76%1.83fair odd
EV -0.329%
Edge -0.181%
Kelly -0.401%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.12%54.64%54.74%56.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.701.8262.50%58.58%58.82%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Juárez (Visit)

Prediction 20.97%4.77fair odd
EV +0.845%
Edge +0.176%
Kelly +0.222%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.78%21.10%20.98%23.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.264.304.8127.03%23.49%23.26%20.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.361%
Kelly -0.479%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.33%24.27%24.27%25.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.773.754.0628.99%26.51%26.67%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Necaxa (Local): 54.76%; FC Juárez (Visit): 20.97%; Draw: 24.27%. For FC Juárez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.845%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.77%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.94%EV +0.845%E +0.176%K +0.222%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.13%E -1.05%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 00:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.09%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.14%EV +0.426%E +0.089%K +0.112%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.76%EV -1.46%E -0.361%K -0.479%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-23 23:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.09%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.14%EV +0.426%E +0.089%K +0.112%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.76%EV -1.46%E -0.361%K -0.479%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-23 23:00
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.08%EV -2.52%E -1.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.52%EV -1.67%E -0.356%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.40%EV -8.02%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 00:50
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.17%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.63%EV -1.88%E -0.402%K -0.511%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.20%EV -3.16%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 00:40
Coolbet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.64%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -3.56%E -0.773%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 22:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -12.38%E -7.74%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -3.56%E -0.773%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 21:35
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -6.35%E -3.72%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -2.92%E -0.730%K -0.974%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 15:49
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.16%EV -6.35%E -3.72%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -4.13%E -1.05%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-23 15:45
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 21:14
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.77%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 21:04
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.77%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 00:44
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -6.35%E -3.72%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 21:05
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 21:14
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 21:05
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -7.45%E -4.41%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 21:04
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 00:45
BetUS🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.94%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.72%EV -8.80%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.33%EV -1.71%E -0.422%K -0.560%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 15:07
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.48%EV -7.45%E -4.41%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.17%EV -8.80%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.36%EV -8.26%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 15:07
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.49%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -8.80%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 00:45
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.59%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -9.22%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-23 15:07
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.64%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -9.22%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.77%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 00:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%EV -0.329%E -0.181%K -0.401%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV -9.85%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV -2.92%E -0.730%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-24 00:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%EV -0.329%E -0.181%K -0.401%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV -9.85%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV -2.92%E -0.730%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-24 00:45
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.96%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -10.90%E -2.56%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 21:04
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.77%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.77%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 00:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.13%EV -10.73%E -6.59%K -17.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.86%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 00:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.55%EV -11.83%E -7.35%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.53%EV -13.11%E -3.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 00:34
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 00:45
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 00:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 00:45
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 00:45
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 00:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 00:45
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 00:45
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 00:50
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 15:12
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 15:06
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.78%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 00:35
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.78%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 00:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.78%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 00:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.78%EV -8.54%E -5.12%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -16.14%E -4.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 00:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -18.23%E -4.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 00:45
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -18.23%E -4.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -18.23%E -4.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 00:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.25%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -19.28%E -5.01%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 00:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.12%EV -10.19%E -6.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.10%EV -22.43%E -6.06%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.78%EV -16.27%E -4.72%K -6.64%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-24 00:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.96%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-10-24 00:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62%0.8%2026-10-24 00:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62%0.8%2026-10-24 00:45
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-10-24 00:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.40%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-10-24 00:45
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-10-23 20:30