Language:English
Necaxa v América
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Necaxa (Local)
Prediction 23.67%4.23fair odd
EV +6.03%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.104%
assuming max odds 4.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.39%23.56%23.68%26.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.804.4828.57%25.80%26.32%22.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
América (Visit)
Prediction 51.09%1.96fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.28%51.14%50.91%52.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.801.9158.82%55.49%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.24%3.96fair odd
EV -0.795%
Edge -0.202%
Kelly -0.271%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.32%25.30%25.42%26.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.603.9329.41%27.65%27.78%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Necaxa (Local): 23.67%; América (Visit): 51.09%; Draw: 25.24%. For Necaxa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.39%EV +6.03%E +1.34%K +1.73%G +0.104% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.36%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.25%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-28 02:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -0.601%E -0.143%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.36%EV -8.55%E -4.78%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -0.601%E -0.143%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -9.57%E -5.41%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -0.601%E -0.143%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.19I 23.87%NM 23.04%EV -0.838%E -0.200%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%EV -4.46%E -2.39%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.34%EV -3.82%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.17%EV -1.31%E -0.314%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.24%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.59%EV -0.795%E -0.202%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.17%EV -1.31%E -0.314%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.24%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.59%EV -0.795%E -0.202%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -2.97%E -0.724%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -2.97%E -0.724%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -12.91%E -3.74%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -2.97%E -0.724%K -0.957%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -12.91%E -3.74%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.02%EV -3.91%E -0.964%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.47%EV -10.89%E -3.09%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -2.42%E -1.27%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-28 01:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-28 03:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -8.04%E -4.47%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -8.04%E -4.47%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-28 03:03 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.82%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.39%E -2.93%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -11.61%E -6.71%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-28 02:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -8.88%E -2.31%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.25%EV -9.57%E -5.41%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-28 02:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.04%E -4.47%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -4.08%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-28 03:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -7.02%E -3.85%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.84%EV -8.04%E -4.47%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-28 03:03 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-28 03:03 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-28 03:03 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-28 03:03 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-28 02:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -9.06%E -5.09%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -10.39%E -2.93%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -9.06%E -5.09%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -10.39%E -2.93%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -9.06%E -5.09%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -10.39%E -2.93%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.38%EV -10.08%E -5.73%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 24.20%EV -14.09%E -3.88%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.19%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 25.61%EV -13.42%E -3.91%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-28 02:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -14.80%E -4.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.04%E -4.47%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-28 02:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -14.80%E -4.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -8.04%E -4.47%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-28 02:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -14.80%E -4.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-28 02:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.80%E -4.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -8.04%E -4.47%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-28 01:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -14.80%E -4.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -10.59%E -6.05%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -12.91%E -3.74%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -17.17%E -4.91%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.46%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.46%EV -17.17%E -4.91%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 50.36%EV -13.15%E -7.73%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.18%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-28 03:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.71% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77% | 0.9% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.71% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77% | 0.9% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.71% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77% | 0.9% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76% | 1.0% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.21% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.92% | 1.6% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.56% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 1.9% | 2026-09-28 03:05 |