The School of Odds
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Monterrey v Pachuca

2026-10-19 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monterrey (Local)

Prediction 48.78%2.05fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.54%48.93%48.72%51.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.881.881.9556.50%53.20%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pachuca (Visit)

Prediction 26.16%3.82fair odd
EV +3.33%
Edge +0.844%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%26.00%26.12%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.453.9531.25%28.77%28.99%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.06%3.99fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%25.07%25.17%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.653.603.8528.99%27.39%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Monterrey (Local): 48.78%; Pachuca (Visit): 26.16%; Draw: 25.06%. For Pachuca (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.95, producing a positive expected value of +3.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -9.76%E -5.28%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV +3.33%E +0.844%K +1.13%G +0.038%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -13.53%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-12 07:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.12%EV -12.20%E -6.78%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.34%EV -1.11%E -0.295%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 07:04
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -3.21%E -0.867%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 07:04
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.78%EV -4.89%E -2.51%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -4.51%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.16%EV -5.26%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 02:20
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.47%EV -7.32%E -3.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -3.51%E -0.911%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 07:05
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.84%E -3.58%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 01:29
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.89%E -2.51%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-12 01:24
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.43%EV -5.37%E -2.77%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 01:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.69%EV -6.35%E -3.31%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 01:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.69%EV -6.35%E -3.31%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 01:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.84%E -3.58%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-12 01:39
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -5.86%E -3.04%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 01:38
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -5.86%E -3.04%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 01:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.32%E -3.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 01:24
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.96%EV -5.86%E -3.04%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.75%EV -9.49%E -2.74%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.29%EV -8.27%E -2.26%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 01:49
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.58%EV -7.81%E -4.13%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 01:34
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 01:34
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 01:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 01:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 01:34
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 01:34
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 01:35
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.30%E -4.41%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-12 07:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.71%EV -9.76%E -5.28%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.17%EV -10.27%E -2.87%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-12 01:19
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -7.32%E -3.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-12 01:24
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -10.74%E -5.87%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-12 07:04
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -10.74%E -5.87%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-12 07:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -10.74%E -5.87%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-12 07:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -10.74%E -5.87%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-12 07:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.40%EV -9.76%E -5.28%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-12 01:34
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.40%EV -9.76%E -5.28%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-12 01:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.40%EV -9.76%E -5.28%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-12 01:35
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -7.32%E -3.85%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-12 01:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.31%EV -10.74%E -5.87%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.90%EV -11.03%E -3.11%K -4.32%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-12 01:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.40%EV -13.67%E -7.72%K -17.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -16.29%E -5.09%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.83%EV -13.53%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-12 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.73%1.1%2026-10-12 07:05
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.59%16.7%2026-10-12 01:25