The School of Odds
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Monterrey v Guadalajara

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 01:00 UTC

Final: Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monterrey (Local)

Prediction 40.23%2.49fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.424%
Kelly -0.714%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%40.11%40.32%41.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.302.4647.62%43.68%43.48%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guadalajara (Visit)

Prediction 31.55%3.17fair odd
EV +4.11%
Edge +1.25%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.074%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.83%31.57%31.43%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.882.853.3037.74%34.69%35.09%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV +3.02%
Edge +0.827%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%28.32%28.25%30.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.6533.33%30.32%30.30%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monterrey (Local): 40.23%; Guadalajara (Visit): 31.55%; Draw: 28.22%. For Guadalajara (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV +4.11%E +1.25%K +1.79%G +0.074%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -12.51%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 17:31
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.47%EV -3.86%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.91%EV -1.25%E -0.400%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.62%EV -4.60%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 00:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.58%EV -4.26%E -1.79%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.85%EV -1.25%E -0.400%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.57%EV -4.60%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-25 00:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.58%EV -4.26%E -1.79%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.85%EV -1.25%E -0.400%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.57%EV -4.60%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-25 00:43
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV +3.02%E +0.827%K +1.14%G +0.034%3.3%2026-10-25 00:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV +3.02%E +0.827%K +1.14%G +0.034%3.3%2026-10-25 00:10
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.24%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.45%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-25 00:50
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 00:50
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 22:55
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 00:49
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.27%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 00:50
GTbets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.44%EV -3.86%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.74%EV -6.30%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.82%EV -7.71%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 15:40
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -6.27%E -2.69%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.40%EV -7.56%E -2.58%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.11%EV -10.81%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 00:55
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -6.67%E -2.88%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 00:39
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -6.67%E -2.88%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 00:40
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.14%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.51%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 00:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.14%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.51%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 00:50
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -9.14%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -12.51%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 00:50
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.03%EV -1.04%E -0.424%K -0.714%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.46%EV -9.45%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.51%EV -1.50%E -0.429%K -0.602%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 00:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -3.46%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 00:50
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 00:10
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 00:10
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 00:10
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 00:10
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 00:10
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -11.66%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -1.22%E -0.347%K -0.486%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 00:49
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -11.66%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -1.22%E -0.347%K -0.486%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 00:50
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.66%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.04%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 00:39
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -11.66%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.68%E -3.03%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 22:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -11.66%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -15.33%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-25 00:55
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 00:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 00:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 00:10
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 00:10
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 00:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.76%EV -12.31%E -5.64%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 00:10
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.33%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-25 00:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.33%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-25 00:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.33%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-25 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.48%EV -10.70%E -4.82%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.70%EV -15.45%E -5.76%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.82%EV -11.09%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-25 00:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.84%EV -15.52%E -7.39%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.36%EV -16.40%E -6.19%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.80%EV -9.68%E -3.03%K -4.40%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-25 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-10-25 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-10-25 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-10-25 00:55
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-10-25 00:55
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.61%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.67%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-25 00:05
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.32%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.70%2.5%2026-10-25 00:55