The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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León v Toluca

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 23:00 UTC

Final: León 1–1 Toluca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

León (Local)

Prediction 24.82%4.03fair odd
EV +4.50%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.84%24.72%24.91%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.663.704.2130.30%27.32%27.03%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toluca (Visit)

Prediction 50.59%1.98fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.88%50.79%50.47%53.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.831.831.9458.82%54.78%54.64%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.59%4.07fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.412%
Kelly -0.549%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.13%24.49%24.62%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.743.754.0028.99%26.71%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: León (Local): 24.82%; Toluca (Visit): 50.59%; Draw: 24.59%. For León (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.21I 23.75%NM 22.92%EV +4.50%E +1.07%K +1.40%G +0.063%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.61%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.46%EV -6.81%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯4.18I 23.92%NM 23.07%EV +3.76%E +0.899%K +1.18%G +0.044%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.13%EV -6.41%E -3.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.79%EV -4.35%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯4.18I 23.92%NM 23.07%EV +3.76%E +0.899%K +1.18%G +0.044%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.13%EV -6.41%E -3.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.79%EV -4.35%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 22:25
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -0.710%E -0.177%K -0.237%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 22:39
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -0.710%E -0.177%K -0.237%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -10.46%E -5.91%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:54
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -0.710%E -0.177%K -0.237%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -9.45%E -5.28%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.56%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 22:54
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -0.710%E -0.177%K -0.237%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -14.00%E -8.23%K -20.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 22:24
1xBet🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 24.35%EV -2.20%E -0.558%K -0.748%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.35%EV -3.12%E -0.792%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 22:55
DraftKings🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -3.19%E -0.819%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -5.33%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 22:20
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -5.67%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -3.37%E -1.77%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -6.56%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 19:30
Coolbet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -5.67%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.88%E -2.04%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -6.56%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 20:44
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -5.67%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.94%E -4.97%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.56%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 22:20
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.67%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 22:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.67%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 22:45
GTbets🎯3.77I 26.53%NM 24.82%EV -6.42%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.30%EV -5.90%E -3.17%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.88%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.76%EV -6.92%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.79%EV -1.86%E -0.957%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.45%EV -2.88%E -0.728%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 22:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.76%EV -6.92%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.79%EV -1.86%E -0.957%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.45%EV -2.88%E -0.728%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 22:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.92%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.64%EV -6.92%E -3.76%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.56%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 22:20
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -6.92%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 24.76%EV -7.66%E -2.06%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.34%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 20:30
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -8.16%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.65%E -0.412%K -0.549%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 22:44
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -8.16%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.65%E -0.412%K -0.549%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 22:44
BetMGM🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.16%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -4.39%E -2.32%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 19:30
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.16%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -4.89%E -2.60%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 22:35
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.16%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -4.89%E -2.60%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 22:34
PlayUp🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -9.40%E -2.57%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.41%E -3.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 22:45
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -10.64%E -2.96%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 22:20
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.88%E -3.35%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:35
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.88%E -3.35%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:35
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.88%E -3.35%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.88%E -3.35%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.88%E -3.35%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:35
BetRivers🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.88%E -3.35%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:35
betPARX🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.88%E -3.35%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.40%E -2.89%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.02%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 24.84%EV -12.38%E -3.51%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.68%EV -12.48%E -7.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.49%EV -11.97%E -3.34%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 22:35
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -13.12%E -3.75%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 22:54
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.12%E -3.75%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.94%E -3.98%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 19:30
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -13.12%E -3.75%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.18%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -12.71%E -3.58%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 22:35
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -14.36%E -4.16%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 22:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -14.36%E -4.16%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 22:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -14.36%E -4.16%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -7.42%E -4.06%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.48%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -15.60%E -4.59%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.97%EV -8.43%E -4.66%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -12.71%E -3.58%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 22:35
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -18.09%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -8.94%E -4.97%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 22:55
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -18.09%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.23%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -6.56%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-24 21:50
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -18.09%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.08%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 22:35
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -18.09%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.08%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 22:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -18.09%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.08%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 22:35
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -18.09%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.08%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -7.79%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 22:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.03%EV -18.09%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.08%EV -11.47%E -6.55%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.89%EV -15.17%E -4.40%K -6.19%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-24 22:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-10-24 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-10-24 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.59%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99%1.7%2026-10-24 22:55
Matchbook◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.59%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99%1.7%2026-10-24 22:55
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.57%1.7%2026-10-24 22:55
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%1.9%2026-10-24 22:20