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Guadalajara v Tigres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Guadalajara (Local)
Prediction 50.85%1.97fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%50.89%50.79%53.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.811.821.8958.82%55.13%54.95%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tigres (Visit)
Prediction 23.06%4.34fair odd
EV +4.23%
Edge +0.936%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 4.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.17%23.05%23.17%25.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.933.904.5228.57%25.43%25.64%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.09%3.83fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.451%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%26.06%26.03%27.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.553.9030.30%28.27%28.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guadalajara (Local): 50.85%; Tigres (Visit): 23.06%; Draw: 26.09%. For Tigres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.40%EV -4.40%E -2.34%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.38%EV +4.23%E +0.936%K +1.20%G +0.051% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-17 23:06 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -8.47%E -4.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +1.46%E +0.332%K +0.430%G +0.006% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.63%EV -4.91%E -2.63%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.99%EV +1.23%E +0.281%K +0.363%G +0.004% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.38%EV -4.50%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.63%EV -4.91%E -2.63%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.99%EV +1.23%E +0.281%K +0.363%G +0.004% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.38%EV -4.50%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.46%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -0.844%E -0.196%K -0.256%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.55%EV -13.56%E -7.98%K -19.37%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -0.844%E -0.196%K -0.256%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-17 22:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.61%EV -6.95%E -3.80%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.01%EV -1.07%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.38%EV -6.59%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-16 14:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.87%EV -4.91%E -2.63%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.33%EV -1.77%E -0.415%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-17 22:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -6.95%E -3.80%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.15%E -0.750%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -11.02%E -6.29%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -3.15%E -0.750%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.20%EV -4.40%E -2.34%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.48%EV -5.46%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV -0.851%E -0.224%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-16 15:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.20%EV -4.40%E -2.34%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.48%EV -5.46%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV -0.851%E -0.224%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-16 15:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -4.91%E -2.63%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.46%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-17 23:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -6.95%E -3.80%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.46%E -0.935%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-17 22:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -6.95%E -3.80%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.46%E -0.935%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-17 22:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.93%E -3.21%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 23:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.95%E -3.80%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-17 05:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.82%EV -11.02%E -6.29%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.95%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-17 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.93%E -3.21%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.91%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-17 22:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.93%E -3.21%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.91%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -11.52%E -6.62%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.02%EV -9.15%E -2.32%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -4.76%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.81%EV -3.90%E -2.06%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.56%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%EV +1.76%E +0.451%K +0.606%G +0.011% | 4.1% | 2026-10-17 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -7.46%E -4.10%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.96%EV -5.93%E -3.21%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -11.22%E -2.91%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.37%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -8.47%E -4.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -11.22%E -2.91%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -4.76%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -12.03%E -6.95%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.37%E -3.26%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -12.59%E -3.76%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.24%EV -9.49%E -5.33%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -13.53%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.92%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-15 03:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.24%EV -9.49%E -5.33%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -13.53%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.92%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-15 03:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.24%EV -9.49%E -5.33%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -13.53%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.92%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-15 03:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.76%EV -12.03%E -6.95%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.42%EV -13.53%E -3.61%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-17 23:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -4.91%E -2.63%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -14.68%E -3.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -3.46%E -0.935%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-17 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -5.93%E -3.21%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -14.68%E -3.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 22:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.36%EV -10.51%E -5.97%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -14.68%E -3.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-15 03:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -6.95%E -3.80%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -16.99%E -4.72%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-17 22:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -8.47%E -4.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.99%E -4.72%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 21:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -8.47%E -4.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -16.99%E -4.72%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -8.47%E -4.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -16.99%E -4.72%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -8.47%E -4.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -16.99%E -4.72%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-17 23:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 50.32%EV -13.56%E -7.98%K -19.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.76%EV -16.99%E -4.72%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.92%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-10-17 22:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -8.47%E -4.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -19.29%E -5.51%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-10-17 23:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.21%EV -9.49%E -5.33%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.03%EV -19.29%E -5.51%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.76%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-10-17 23:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.75% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.15% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94% | 1.4% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.98% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20% | 1.8% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.66% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53% | 1.9% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.50% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.75% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.75% | 2.2% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.50% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.75% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.75% | 2.2% | 2026-10-17 23:10 |