The School of Odds
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Guadalajara v Necaxa

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 00:11 UTC

Final: Guadalajara 1–0 Necaxa

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guadalajara (Local)

Prediction 70.24%1.42fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -8.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.72%70.07%70.04%72.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.321.3880.00%75.86%75.76%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Necaxa (Visit)

Prediction 12.32%8.11fair odd
EV +3.53%
Edge +0.420%
Kelly +0.477%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 8.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.49%12.50%12.41%14.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.257.308.4016.67%13.79%13.70%11.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.44%5.74fair odd
EV +0.252%
Edge +0.044%
Kelly +0.053%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.28%17.43%17.55%19.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.205.205.7521.74%19.21%19.23%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guadalajara (Local): 70.24%; Necaxa (Visit): 12.32%; Draw: 17.44%. For Necaxa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.11. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.49%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.49%EV +3.53%E +0.420%K +0.477%G +0.017%5.67I 17.64%NM 17.02%EV -1.14%E -0.202%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-21 00:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.49%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.49%EV +3.53%E +0.420%K +0.477%G +0.017%5.67I 17.64%NM 17.02%EV -1.14%E -0.202%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-21 00:05
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.61%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000%8.23I 12.15%NM 11.67%EV +1.43%E +0.174%K +0.198%G +0.003%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.72%EV -5.50%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 23:55
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.01%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000%8.12I 12.32%NM 11.81%EV +0.076%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.18%EV -2.71%E -0.486%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-20 23:55
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -1.40%E -0.175%K -0.200%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV +0.252%E +0.044%K +0.053%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 23:45
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -1.40%E -0.175%K -0.200%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV +0.252%E +0.044%K +0.053%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 23:45
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -1.40%E -0.175%K -0.200%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -4.11%E -0.747%K -0.913%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 00:10
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.86%EV -9.39%E -7.28%K -32.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -1.40%E -0.175%K -0.200%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -2.36%E -0.422%K -0.514%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 00:04
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.55%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.85%EV -3.87%E -0.496%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -8.47%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 23:50
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.55%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.85%EV -3.87%E -0.496%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -8.47%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 23:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -10.79%E -8.50%K -39.98%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.68%EV -3.87%E -0.496%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -4.11%E -0.747%K -0.913%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 23:35
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.22%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -4.48%E -0.579%K -0.664%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -5.85%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-21 00:10
BetUS🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.26%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -4.48%E -0.579%K -0.664%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.60%EV -6.72%E -1.26%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 00:05
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.06%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.01%EV -4.48%E -0.579%K -0.664%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.93%EV -4.11%E -0.747%K -0.913%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-20 23:50
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.27%EV -3.77%E -2.75%K -10.19%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.49%EV -6.33%E -0.833%K -0.960%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.25%EV -9.34%E -1.80%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.91%EV -3.07%E -2.22%K -8.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.86%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.23%EV -2.36%E -0.422%K -0.514%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-20 23:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.91%EV -3.07%E -2.22%K -8.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.86%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.23%EV -2.36%E -0.422%K -0.514%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-20 23:15
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -8.47%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-21 00:09
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.11%E -0.747%K -0.913%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 00:00
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -8.47%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 00:00
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.06%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -8.47%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 00:07
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -19.80%E -4.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-21 00:10
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -12.20%E -9.76%K -48.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-21 00:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -12.20%E -9.76%K -48.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -7.57%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-21 00:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.80%EV -10.09%E -7.88%K -36.04%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.41%EV -10.03%E -1.37%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.78%EV -5.85%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-21 00:10
GTbets🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%7.06I 14.16%NM 13.13%EV -12.99%E -1.84%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -8.47%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 00:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -13.73%E -1.96%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -4.11%E -0.747%K -0.913%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-20 23:30
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.16%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -13.73%E -1.96%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -4.11%E -0.747%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-21 00:00
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -13.73%E -1.96%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-20 23:48
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.39%E -7.28%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -13.73%E -1.96%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-20 23:26
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -13.73%E -1.96%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -19.80%E -4.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 00:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -13.73%E -1.96%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -19.80%E -4.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 00:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -13.73%E -1.96%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -19.80%E -4.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 00:00
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -11.08%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 23:15
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -11.08%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 23:15
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -11.08%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 23:15
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -11.08%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 23:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -11.08%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 23:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -11.08%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 23:14
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -11.08%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 23:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.09%EV -10.79%E -8.50%K -39.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.00%EV -16.81%E -2.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -14.57%E -2.97%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 00:09
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -19.89%E -3.06%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 23:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.16%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.89%E -3.06%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 23:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.16%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.89%E -3.06%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 23:15
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.16%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.89%E -3.06%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.25%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -19.89%E -3.06%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -14.57%E -2.97%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-20 23:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.12%EV -9.39%E -7.28%K -32.38%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 13.95%EV -22.35%E -3.55%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.93%EV -14.57%E -2.97%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-21 00:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 68.17%EV -11.50%E -9.12%K -44.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.74%EV -22.97%E -3.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.08%EV -17.18%E -3.62%K -4.58%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-20 23:15
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.72%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -26.05%E -4.34%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.21%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-21 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.29%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.88%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.83%1.1%2026-10-21 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.90%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.70%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%1.6%2026-10-21 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.90%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.70%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%1.6%2026-10-21 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.90%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.70%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%1.6%2026-10-21 00:10
Matchbook◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.90%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.70%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%1.6%2026-10-21 00:10
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 71.70%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.44%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.86%4.1%2026-10-21 00:10