The School of Odds
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Guadalajara v Atlante FC

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 01:07 UTC

Final: Guadalajara 4–2 Atlante FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guadalajara (Local)

Prediction 67.44%1.48fair odd
EV -0.182%
Edge -0.123%
Kelly -0.379%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.85%67.39%67.56%70.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.381.381.4876.92%72.35%72.46%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlante FC (Visit)

Prediction 13.39%7.47fair odd
EV +3.80%
Edge +0.491%
Kelly +0.563%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 7.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.18%13.46%13.46%15.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.626.707.7517.86%15.10%14.93%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.16%5.22fair odd
EV +2.13%
Edge +0.400%
Kelly +0.492%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 5.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.56%19.15%18.99%20.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.684.605.3324.39%21.36%21.74%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guadalajara (Local): 67.44%; Atlante FC (Visit): 13.39%; Draw: 19.16%. For Atlante FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.47. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.44%EV -6.25%E -4.50%K -16.03%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.45%EV +3.80%E +0.491%K +0.563%G +0.021%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.11%EV +2.13%E +0.400%K +0.492%G +0.010%3.6%2026-11-01 00:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.44%EV -6.25%E -4.50%K -16.03%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.45%EV +3.80%E +0.491%K +0.563%G +0.021%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.11%EV +2.13%E +0.400%K +0.492%G +0.010%3.6%2026-11-01 00:50
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.44%EV -4.90%E -3.48%K -11.96%G +0.000%7.61I 13.14%NM 12.68%EV +1.93%E +0.253%K +0.292%G +0.006%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.88%EV -2.08%E -0.408%K -0.507%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 00:55
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +0.454%E +0.061%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.19%E -0.838%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 01:05
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +0.454%E +0.061%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.19%E -0.838%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 00:50
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +0.454%E +0.061%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.19%E -0.838%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 00:48
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -10.30%E -7.74%K -31.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV +0.454%E +0.061%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -0.360%E -0.069%K -0.086%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 00:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.26%EV -12.32%E -9.48%K -41.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV +0.454%E +0.061%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -0.360%E -0.069%K -0.086%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 00:55
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.92%EV -8.95%E -6.63%K -25.57%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.83%EV -2.89%E -0.399%K -0.463%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.24%EV -2.28%E -0.446%K -0.555%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 00:55
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.54%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.22%EV -3.56%E -0.495%K -0.575%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -9.94%E -2.12%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 00:50
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.56%EV -4.23%E -2.98%K -10.07%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.51%EV -4.90%E -0.691%K -0.804%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.92%EV -2.85%E -0.562%K -0.700%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 00:55
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.93%E -5.02%K -18.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.24%E -0.892%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.19%E -0.838%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 00:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -7.60%E -5.55%K -20.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -6.24%E -0.892%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.19%E -0.838%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 00:54
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -7.60%E -5.55%K -20.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -6.24%E -0.892%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.19%E -0.838%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 00:39
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -6.93%E -5.02%K -18.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -6.24%E -0.892%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -11.86%E -2.58%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:05
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -12.32%E -9.48%K -41.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -6.24%E -0.892%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -8.98%E -1.89%K -2.40%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 00:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -12.32%E -9.48%K -41.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -6.24%E -0.892%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -8.98%E -1.89%K -2.40%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 00:55
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.72%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.34%EV -8.92%E -1.31%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.94%EV -12.81%E -2.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 01:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.46%EV -0.182%E -0.123%K -0.379%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV -9.59%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV -8.02%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-01 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.46%EV -0.182%E -0.123%K -0.379%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV -9.59%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV -8.02%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-01 00:25
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.10%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -9.59%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.98%E -1.89%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-01 00:55
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -6.93%E -5.02%K -18.23%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -9.59%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -8.98%E -1.89%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 01:05
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -9.59%E -1.42%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -6.11%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 00:55
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.96%EV -4.23%E -2.98%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 13.94%EV -9.99%E -1.49%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.10%EV -10.71%E -2.30%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 00:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.69%EV -6.93%E -5.02%K -18.23%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.74%EV -10.26%E -1.53%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -9.94%E -2.12%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 00:40
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.93%E -5.02%K -18.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -12.94%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -4.19%E -0.838%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 00:50
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -12.94%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -17.03%E -3.93%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-01 00:40
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -10.30%E -7.74%K -31.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -12.94%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -11.86%E -2.58%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 00:50
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -10.30%E -7.74%K -31.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -12.94%E -1.99%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 01:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.47%EV -10.97%E -8.31%K -34.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -16.29%E -2.61%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 00:55
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -18.30%E -3.00%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 00:25
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -18.30%E -3.00%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 00:25
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -18.30%E -3.00%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -18.30%E -3.00%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 00:25
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -18.30%E -3.00%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -18.30%E -3.00%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 00:25
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -3.55%E -2.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -18.30%E -3.00%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.77%E -3.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 00:25
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -5.58%E -3.98%K -13.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.69%E -3.57%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-01 00:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -5.58%E -3.98%K -13.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.69%E -3.57%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-01 00:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -5.58%E -3.98%K -13.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -16.65%E -3.83%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -5.58%E -3.98%K -13.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -16.65%E -3.83%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 00:25
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -5.58%E -3.98%K -13.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -16.65%E -3.83%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 00:25
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -17.03%E -3.93%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-31 23:50
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -17.03%E -3.93%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-31 23:51
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -17.03%E -3.93%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-31 23:51
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -8.28%E -6.08%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -17.03%E -3.93%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-31 23:51
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.28%EV -8.95%E -6.63%K -25.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.69%EV -19.64%E -3.27%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.03%EV -15.69%E -3.57%K -4.61%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-01 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.15%EV -6.93%E -5.02%K -18.23%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.26%EV -22.32%E -3.85%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -17.61%E -4.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.0%2026-11-01 00:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 63.85%EV -9.62%E -7.18%K -28.31%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.28%EV -24.99%E -4.46%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.87%EV -21.44%E -5.23%K -6.92%G +0.000%16.9%2026-11-01 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.86%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-11-01 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.86%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-11-01 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.86%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-11-01 01:05
Matchbook◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.86%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-11-01 01:05
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.63%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.1%2026-11-01 01:05
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 68.90%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%2.9%2026-11-01 00:45

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