Language:English
Cruz Azul v Toluca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cruz Azul (Local)
Prediction 36.29%2.76fair odd
EV -0.928%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.536%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.68%36.21%36.39%38.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.522.502.7342.92%39.69%40.00%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toluca (Visit)
Prediction 36.39%2.75fair odd
EV +2.26%
Edge +0.803%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.028%
assuming max odds 2.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.16%36.52%36.35%38.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.8143.48%39.91%40.00%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.32%3.66fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.458%
Kelly -0.634%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.96%27.27%27.27%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.393.413.6032.26%29.47%29.37%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cruz Azul (Local): 36.29%; Toluca (Visit): 36.39%; Draw: 27.32%. For Toluca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.87%EV -10.36%E -4.20%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.16%EV +2.26%E +0.803%K +1.25%G +0.028% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.97%EV -2.74%E -0.770%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-26 22:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.47%EV -0.928%E -0.340%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.13%EV -2.47%E -0.923%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.40%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-26 22:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%EV -2.02%E -0.747%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.05%EV -2.47%E -0.923%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.17%EV -6.29%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-26 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%EV -2.02%E -0.747%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.05%EV -2.47%E -0.923%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.17%EV -6.29%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-26 16:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.58%EV -6.73%E -2.62%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.02%EV -5.02%E -1.92%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.41%EV -6.29%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 22:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -5.39%E -2.07%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.75%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 22:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -5.39%E -2.07%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.75%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 05:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.39%E -2.07%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-26 06:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.39%E -2.07%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.48%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-26 22:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.39%E -2.07%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.85%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 35.57%EV -6.01%E -2.32%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 35.99%EV -6.84%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.44%EV -11.48%E -3.54%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-26 22:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -1.65%E -0.458%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 22:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -1.65%E -0.458%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 22:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 06:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -8.48%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-26 22:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.11%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-26 05:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.85%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 22:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.21%E -2.83%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.85%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 22:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.65%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -1.65%E -0.458%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-26 21:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -1.65%E -0.458%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -1.65%E -0.458%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 22:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.46%E -2.93%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 22:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-26 22:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.85%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-26 04:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.85%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-26 19:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 22:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 22:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -4.38%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 22:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.21%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-25 20:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.31%E -4.94%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-26 19:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.31%E -4.94%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-26 19:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.31%E -4.94%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-26 19:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.31%E -4.94%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-26 19:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.28%EV -12.18%E -5.03%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.84%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -13.94%E -4.43%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-26 22:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 37.58%EV -15.44%E -6.63%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.04%EV -11.57%E -4.76%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 26.38%EV -9.30%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-26 22:23 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -3.83%E -1.45%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -12.66%E -5.28%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.11%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-26 22:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.66%E -5.28%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -7.11%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.66%E -5.28%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -7.11%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-26 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -12.66%E -5.28%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -7.11%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-26 22:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -12.66%E -5.28%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -9.85%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-26 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.41%EV -11.81%E -4.86%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.18%EV -13.39%E -5.63%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.41%EV -8.48%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-26 22:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.41%EV -12.90%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 36.71%EV -13.39%E -5.63%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -11.21%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-09-26 07:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 36.43%EV -14.72%E -6.26%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -16.30%E -7.09%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.34%EV -11.21%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-26 22:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14% | 0.9% | 2026-09-26 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14% | 0.9% | 2026-09-26 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14% | 0.9% | 2026-09-26 22:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14% | 0.9% | 2026-09-26 22:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.87% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07% | 1.2% | 2026-09-26 22:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44% | 2.1% | 2026-09-26 20:00 |