The School of Odds
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Atlético San Luis v Querétaro

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 01:01 UTC

Final: Atlético San Luis 2–1 Querétaro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético San Luis (Local)

Prediction 39.68%2.52fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.06%39.68%39.58%41.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.302.302.4347.17%43.53%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Querétaro (Visit)

Prediction 33.39%2.99fair odd
EV +0.180%
Edge +0.060%
Kelly +0.090%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%33.35%33.41%35.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.782.803.0040.00%35.94%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.93%3.71fair odd
EV +0.434%
Edge +0.116%
Kelly +0.159%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%26.97%27.01%27.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.403.403.7331.75%29.40%29.41%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético San Luis (Local): 39.68%; Querétaro (Visit): 33.39%; Draw: 26.93%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.434%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.38%EV -7.94%E -3.42%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.88%EV -2.49%E -0.853%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV +0.434%E +0.116%K +0.159%G +0.001%4.2%2026-10-21 00:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.74%EV -5.56%E -2.34%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%EV +0.180%E +0.060%K +0.090%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -3.07%E -0.852%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-21 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.74%EV -5.56%E -2.34%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%EV +0.180%E +0.060%K +0.090%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -3.07%E -0.852%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-21 00:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.95%EV -6.35%E -2.69%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%EV +0.180%E +0.060%K +0.090%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.07%E -0.852%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-21 00:36
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.95%EV -6.35%E -2.69%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%EV +0.180%E +0.060%K +0.090%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.07%E -0.852%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-21 00:35
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.81%EV -3.58%E -1.47%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.24%EV -2.83%E -0.971%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.95%EV -3.34%E -0.929%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-21 00:55
GTbets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.42%EV -8.34%E -3.61%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.35%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.23%EV -4.14%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 00:50
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.22%EV -6.75%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.62%EV -4.41%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 00:50
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -9.84%E -3.64%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -4.41%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 01:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -8.73%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.16%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-21 01:00
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -5.56%E -2.34%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -8.17%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 00:50
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -5.56%E -2.34%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -8.17%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 00:59
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -8.73%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 00:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.84%E -3.64%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 00:56
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.73%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 00:40
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 23:20
Coolbet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.18%EV -3.97%E -1.64%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.93%EV -3.83%E -1.33%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.89%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-21 00:58
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -3.16%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 00:55
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.75%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.17%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 00:44
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -11.51%E -4.34%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-21 01:00
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 00:15
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 00:15
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 00:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 00:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 00:15
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 00:15
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 00:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -12.70%E -5.77%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 01:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.10%EV -7.94%E -3.42%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.23%EV -11.51%E -4.34%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-21 01:00
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -9.84%E -3.64%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-21 01:00
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.21%EV -12.70%E -5.77%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -12.51%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -8.45%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-20 23:19
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.75%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -4.83%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -9.80%E -2.92%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 01:00
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.36%EV -6.75%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.03%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.80%E -2.92%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 00:45
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -6.75%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-21 00:45
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -6.75%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-21 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.70%E -5.77%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -8.17%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-21 00:25
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.70%E -5.77%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -8.17%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-21 00:25
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -12.51%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 00:50
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -12.51%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 00:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -12.51%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 00:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -12.51%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-21 00:50
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -13.18%E -5.07%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -11.14%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-21 00:59
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.73%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 00:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.73%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 00:55
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.73%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.84%E -3.64%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 00:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.59%EV -13.50%E -6.19%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -8.17%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-21 00:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.46%EV -13.89%E -6.40%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.52%EV -9.84%E -3.64%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.02%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-21 01:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -8.73%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -16.52%E -6.61%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-21 01:00
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -10.72%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -9.84%E -3.64%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -13.84%E -4.32%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-21 00:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.44%EV -15.88%E -7.49%K -14.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.35%EV -11.51%E -4.34%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.21%EV -15.18%E -4.82%K -7.06%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-21 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.60%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-10-21 01:00
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.99%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.69%1.7%2026-10-21 01:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98%2.1%2026-10-21 01:00
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.12%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.82%2.2%2026-10-21 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.15%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.29%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.57%2.2%2026-10-21 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.15%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.29%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.57%2.2%2026-10-21 01:00