La escuela de los momios

Atlético San Luis v Puebla

Inicio: 2026-02-28 23:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Atlético San Luis (Local)

Predicción 43.48%2.30momio equitativo
EV -4.35%
Ventaja -1.98%
Kelly -3.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.08%43.70%43.43%47.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.852.072.102.2054.05%48.20%47.62%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Puebla (Visitante)

Predicción 28.77%3.48momio equitativo
EV +3.57%
Ventaja +0.993%
Kelly +1.37%
Crecimiento +0.049%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.65%28.57%28.78%29.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.283.273.6034.72%30.50%30.53%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.75%3.60momio equitativo
EV -1.20%
Ventaja -0.337%
Kelly -0.469%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%27.73%27.79%28.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.353.5633.33%30.02%29.85%28.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetRivers1.94I 51.55%NM 47.59%EV -15.65%E -8.07%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV +3.57%E +0.993%K +1.37%G +0.049%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 22:34
LowVig.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.94%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV +0.697%E +0.199%K +0.279%G +0.002%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -2.31%E -0.656%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 22:04
BetOnline.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.94%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV +0.697%E +0.199%K +0.279%G +0.002%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -2.31%E -0.656%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 22:05
ATG (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -10.00%E -4.83%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV +0.697%E +0.199%K +0.279%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -2.87%E -0.819%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 22:49
Svenska Spel2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -10.00%E -4.83%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV +0.697%E +0.199%K +0.279%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -2.87%E -0.819%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 22:49
1xBet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -7.83%E -3.69%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.63%EV +0.121%E +0.035%K +0.049%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.01%EV -1.20%E -0.337%K -0.469%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 22:54
GTbets2.09I 47.85%NM 45.18%EV -9.13%E -4.37%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.13%EV +0.121%E +0.035%K +0.049%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.69%EV -5.36%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 22:54
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -12.18%E -6.03%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -0.742%E -0.215%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 22:49
Casumo2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -12.18%E -6.03%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -0.742%E -0.215%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 22:49
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -12.18%E -6.03%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -0.742%E -0.215%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 22:49
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -12.18%E -6.03%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -0.742%E -0.215%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 22:49
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -12.18%E -6.03%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -0.742%E -0.215%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 22:49
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -12.18%E -6.03%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -0.742%E -0.215%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 22:49
Pinnacle2.19I 45.66%NM 44.20%EV -4.79%E -2.19%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.14%EV -1.03%E -0.299%K -0.422%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66%EV -2.87%E -0.819%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 22:45
Coolbet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.49%EV -6.96%E -3.25%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.68%EV -1.03%E -0.299%K -0.422%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.84%EV -5.09%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 22:19
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.05%E -6.52%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -2.18%E -0.641%K -0.909%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 22:49
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -3.62%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 22:14
LiveScore Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 45.83%EV -13.92%E -7.03%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -3.62%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-28 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -14.35%E -7.28%K -14.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -3.62%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-28 22:49
Virgin Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.08%EV -14.79%E -7.54%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -3.62%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 22:49
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.06%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 22:33
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -13.05%E -6.52%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -5.06%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 22:54
NetBet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 46.56%EV -19.57%E -10.58%K -23.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.10%EV -5.06%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.34%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-28 22:29
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -6.50%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 22:39
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -6.50%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 22:19
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.50%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 22:54
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.50%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 22:43
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 45.84%EV -16.52%E -8.61%K -17.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -6.50%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-28 22:49
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -5.22%E -2.39%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 22:49
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -5.22%E -2.39%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 22:49
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.30%EV -6.96%E -3.25%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -7.31%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 22:49
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -9.37%E -2.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 22:50
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 22:49
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 22:49
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 22:19
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 22:54
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-28 22:09
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 22:55
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 22:55
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 22:54
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 22:54
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 22:54
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -12.25%E -4.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 22:15
Betclic (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 43.41%EV -12.18%E -6.03%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -12.25%E -4.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.0%2026-02-28 22:34
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -13.05%E -6.52%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -13.69%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%14.6%2026-02-28 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -13.05%E -6.52%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -17.14%E -5.95%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -16.74%E -5.58%K -8.37%G +0.000%18.1%2026-02-28 22:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-02-28 22:55
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-02-28 22:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-02-28 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-02-28 22:54
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.96%2.2%2026-02-28 22:54