The School of Odds
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Atlas v América

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 01:02 UTC

Final: Atlas 2–5 América

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlas (Local)

Prediction 29.51%3.39fair odd
EV +4.76%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.87%
Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%29.43%29.42%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.173.153.5535.71%31.57%31.75%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

América (Visit)

Prediction 44.67%2.24fair odd
EV +0.062%
Edge +0.028%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.78%44.78%44.71%47.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.042.052.2454.05%48.98%48.78%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV -0.856%
Edge -0.223%
Kelly -0.301%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.48%25.79%25.87%27.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.543.553.8430.77%28.29%28.17%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlas (Local): 29.51%; América (Visit): 44.67%; Draw: 25.82%. For Atlas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV +4.76%E +1.34%K +1.87%G +0.089%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.12%EV -7.98%E -3.87%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -1.89%E -0.497%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-22 00:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV +4.76%E +1.34%K +1.87%G +0.089%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.12%EV -7.98%E -3.87%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -1.89%E -0.497%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-22 00:55
Coolbet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV +2.70%E +0.775%K +1.09%G +0.029%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -7.98%E -3.87%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 22:24
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 28.17%EV +1.22%E +0.356%K +0.503%G +0.006%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.46%EV -7.08%E -3.41%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.36%EV -1.63%E -0.428%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-22 00:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.84%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.00%EV -6.19%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.16%EV -0.856%E -0.223%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-22 00:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.84%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.00%EV -6.19%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.16%EV -0.856%E -0.223%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-22 00:55
GTbets🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.55%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.11%EV -5.30%E -2.50%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.34%EV -6.28%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-22 00:59
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.54%EV -11.55%E -5.83%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 00:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -12.00%E -6.09%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 00:55
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -12.00%E -6.09%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 00:55
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -12.00%E -6.09%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 00:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -12.00%E -6.09%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 00:55
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -12.00%E -6.09%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 00:55
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -1.14%E -0.340%K -0.485%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.79%EV -12.45%E -6.35%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-22 00:44
1xBet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.43%EV -3.80%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.84%EV +0.062%E +0.028%K +0.050%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.73%EV -10.67%E -3.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 00:59
BetUS🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 01:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.44%EV -13.79%E -7.14%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-22 00:44
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.44%EV -13.79%E -7.14%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-22 00:45
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -4.09%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.44%EV -13.79%E -7.14%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-22 00:44
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.57%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.19%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 00:55
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.57%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.19%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 01:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.57%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.24%EV -12.00%E -6.09%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-22 01:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -5.57%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.33%EV -14.68%E -7.69%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-22 00:45
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.04%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -5.30%E -2.50%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 01:00
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.04%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -5.30%E -2.50%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 01:00
Fliff🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.04%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -10.66%E -5.33%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.63%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-22 01:00
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -3.96%E -1.84%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 01:00
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -3.96%E -1.84%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -3.96%E -1.84%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 00:59
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.07%EV -6.19%E -2.95%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 01:00
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -5.76%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-22 01:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.71%EV -7.98%E -3.87%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 00:59
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -12.89%E -6.61%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-22 00:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.66%EV -8.52%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 46.35%EV -17.36%E -9.38%K -20.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%EV -14.80%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-22 00:55
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -9.99%E -3.28%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -3.96%E -1.84%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-22 01:00
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -3.96%E -1.84%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 00:58
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -3.96%E -1.84%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 00:58
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-22 01:00
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-22 00:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-22 01:00
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.66%E -5.33%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.63%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 00:59
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -14.68%E -7.69%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-21 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.47%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -12.89%E -6.61%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-22 01:00
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -12.94%E -4.39%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -3.96%E -1.84%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 01:00
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -14.42%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.80%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-22 00:59
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -14.42%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.80%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-22 00:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -14.42%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -16.09%E -4.95%K -7.15%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-22 00:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -14.42%E -4.97%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -8.42%E -4.11%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -16.09%E -4.95%K -7.15%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-22 00:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -17.37%E -6.20%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -10.66%E -5.33%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -9.63%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-22 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.04%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.87%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-10-22 01:00
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.36%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.67%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-10-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.52%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%1.7%2026-10-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.69%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-10-22 01:00
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%2.0%2026-10-22 01:00
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%6.5%2026-10-22 01:00