Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlante FC v Monterrey

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 01:00 UTC

Final: Atlante FC 4–2 Monterrey

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlante FC (Local)

Prediction 31.37%3.19fair odd
EV +3.52%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.08%31.40%31.39%32.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.722.932.953.3036.76%34.17%33.96%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monterrey (Visit)

Prediction 41.75%2.40fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.61%41.74%41.70%43.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.192.172.3249.02%45.63%46.08%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.88%3.72fair odd
EV +0.797%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.290%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.63%26.86%26.91%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.453.7531.25%29.16%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlante FC (Local): 31.37%; Monterrey (Visit): 41.75%; Draw: 26.88%. For Atlante FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.08%EV +3.52%E +1.07%K +1.53%G +0.054%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.82%EV -8.56%E -3.91%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.11%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 00:55
Pinnacle🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.63%EV -0.875%E -0.277%K -0.405%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.26%EV -4.39%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.11%EV -4.04%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-26 00:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.67%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.64%EV -3.14%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -2.70%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-26 00:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.67%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.64%EV -3.14%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -2.70%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-26 00:50
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -3.14%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.81%EV -8.07%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 00:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.49%EV -5.27%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.43%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.61%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 00:55
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -3.97%E -1.73%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 00:50
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.06%EV -3.97%E -1.73%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.46%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 00:25
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.06%E -2.69%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 00:44
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.06%E -2.69%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 00:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.58%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 00:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.58%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 00:40
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.06%E -2.69%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.61%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 00:44
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.06%E -2.69%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.61%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 00:45
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 00:48
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 00:48
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:50
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:50
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:55
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:50
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -9.40%E -4.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 00:25
GTbets🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.97%EV -7.78%E -2.64%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.77%EV -6.06%E -2.69%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.26%EV -3.77%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 00:25
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -9.03%E -3.11%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -3.23%E -0.899%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-26 00:40
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -9.03%E -3.11%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -3.23%E -0.899%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-26 00:40
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -9.03%E -3.11%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.96%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-26 00:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -3.97%E -1.73%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 00:35
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -11.30%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 00:45
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -13.99%E -4.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-26 00:55
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -13.99%E -4.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 00:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -13.99%E -4.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 00:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -13.99%E -4.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 00:55
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -13.99%E -4.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 00:55
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -10.60%E -3.72%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV +0.797%E +0.213%K +0.290%G +0.002%8.3%2026-09-26 00:40
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -10.60%E -3.72%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -4.58%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 00:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -10.60%E -3.72%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -11.49%E -5.42%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-26 00:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -10.60%E -3.72%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -11.49%E -5.42%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-26 00:55
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -10.60%E -3.72%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -11.49%E -5.42%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-26 00:55
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -6.06%E -2.69%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.27%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 00:35
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-26 00:55
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.64%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-26 00:38
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.07%EV -12.32%E -5.87%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-26 00:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 31.66%EV -13.11%E -4.73%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.36%EV -11.49%E -5.42%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -12.64%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-26 00:55
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -13.74%E -4.99%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -8.61%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-26 00:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.31%EV -13.74%E -4.99%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 42.20%EV -14.83%E -7.27%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.49%EV -12.64%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-26 00:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.19%EV -14.68%E -5.40%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 41.11%EV -11.07%E -5.20%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.70%EV -11.84%E -3.61%K -5.19%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-26 00:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-09-26 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-09-26 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-09-26 00:55
Matchbook◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-09-26 00:50
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.8%2026-09-26 00:55
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-26 00:55