The School of Odds
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América v Toluca

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 03:16 UTC

Final: América 2–2 Toluca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América (Local)

Prediction 42.73%2.34fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.744%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%42.84%42.77%45.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.3050.00%46.39%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toluca (Visit)

Prediction 32.00%3.12fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.655%
Kelly +0.955%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.09%31.97%32.01%33.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.862.883.1938.46%35.03%34.72%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.26%3.96fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -0.508%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%25.19%25.22%26.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.633.653.9030.30%27.54%27.40%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América (Local): 42.73%; Toluca (Visit): 32.00%; Draw: 25.26%. For Toluca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.19, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.65%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.09%EV +2.09%E +0.655%K +0.955%G +0.020%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 02:55
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.13%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.20%EV -0.470%E -0.151%K -0.223%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.67%EV -4.51%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 03:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.73%EV -5.56%E -2.52%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.17%EV -0.790%E -0.255%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -2.74%E -0.711%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 02:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.73%EV -5.56%E -2.52%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.17%EV -0.790%E -0.255%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -2.74%E -0.711%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 02:55
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -3.99%E -1.33%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 02:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -14.53%E -7.27%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -3.99%E -1.33%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 03:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -2.57%E -1.13%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -5.59%E -1.90%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -1.47%E -0.378%K -0.508%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 02:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -2.57%E -1.13%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -5.59%E -1.90%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -1.47%E -0.378%K -0.508%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 02:55
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.02%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -5.59%E -1.90%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 03:04
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.59%E -1.90%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 02:55
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.59%E -1.90%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 02:55
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.59%E -1.90%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 02:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.23%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 02:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.53%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 02:54
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.86%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 03:05
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 03:00
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 02:59
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 02:55
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 02:55
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.19%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 02:59
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -1.71%E -0.744%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -7.83%E -2.72%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 02:19
GTbets🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -7.83%E -2.72%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 03:00
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -7.83%E -2.72%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -16.63%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 03:05
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -7.83%E -2.72%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -16.63%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 03:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -7.83%E -2.72%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -16.63%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 03:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -7.83%E -2.72%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -16.63%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 03:05
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.10%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.76%EV -8.79%E -3.08%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-01 03:00
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.79%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 02:55
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 02:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 02:55
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.11%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-01 02:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.11%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-01 02:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.39%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.58%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 02:53
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.63%EV -7.70%E -3.56%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.01%EV -10.71%E -3.84%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.36%EV -4.51%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 02:35
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -11.99%E -4.36%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.53%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 02:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -11.54%E -5.58%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.99%EV -11.99%E -4.36%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.50%EV -12.84%E -3.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-01 03:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -12.40%E -6.05%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.99%E -4.36%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -12.84%E -3.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-01 02:55
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.75%EV -8.55%E -4.00%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.09%EV -13.59%E -5.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -10.32%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 02:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.75%EV -8.55%E -4.00%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.09%EV -13.59%E -5.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -10.32%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 02:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.75%EV -8.55%E -4.00%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.09%EV -13.59%E -5.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -10.32%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 02:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.83%EV -9.40%E -4.44%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.59%E -5.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.58%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 02:55
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -16.15%E -6.16%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 02:40
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.54%EV -14.53%E -7.27%K -14.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.24%EV -16.15%E -6.16%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.22%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-01 03:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 41.94%EV -12.82%E -6.29%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.90%EV -16.79%E -6.46%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.16%EV -14.11%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%16.9%2026-11-01 02:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-11-01 02:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-11-01 03:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-11-01 03:00
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-11-01 02:55
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.86%1.8%2026-11-01 03:00
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-11-01 03:00

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