The School of Odds
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América v Pachuca

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 01:05 UTC

Final: América 1–2 Pachuca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América (Local)

Prediction 57.11%1.75fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -5.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.00%57.32%57.04%59.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.601.611.6968.03%62.50%62.11%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pachuca (Visit)

Prediction 19.86%5.04fair odd
EV +7.23%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.119%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.55%19.65%19.80%20.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.754.725.4023.09%21.04%21.16%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.03%4.34fair odd
EV +2.50%
Edge +0.562%
Kelly +0.724%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.69%23.03%23.16%24.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.974.004.4527.78%25.21%25.00%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América (Local): 57.11%; Pachuca (Visit): 19.86%; Draw: 23.03%. For Pachuca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.04. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.79%EV -7.48%E -4.62%K -12.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.94%EV +7.23%E +1.34%K +1.64%G +0.119%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%EV +0.196%E +0.045%K +0.058%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-26 01:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.79%EV -7.48%E -4.62%K -12.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.94%EV +7.23%E +1.34%K +1.64%G +0.119%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%EV +0.196%E +0.045%K +0.058%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-26 01:00
Coolbet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.61%EV -9.20%E -5.78%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV +7.23%E +1.34%K +1.64%G +0.119%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.84%EV -4.41%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-26 00:21
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.28%EV -4.06%E -2.41%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.92%EV +6.63%E +1.24%K +1.52%G +0.101%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.80%EV -10.63%E -2.74%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-26 00:55
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.82%EV -12.05%E -7.83%K -22.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV +3.26%E +0.627%K +0.776%G +0.025%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -5.56%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-26 00:10
BetUS🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.20%EV -6.91%E -4.24%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.11%EV +0.279%E +0.055%K +0.069%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.69%EV +2.50%E +0.562%K +0.724%G +0.018%3.6%2026-10-25 15:12
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.61%EV -5.77%E -3.50%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 18.97%EV -0.515%E -0.103%K -0.128%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.41%EV -6.48%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 13:21
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.50%EV -5.77%E -3.50%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV +0.196%E +0.045%K +0.058%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-26 00:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.50%EV -5.77%E -3.50%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV +0.196%E +0.045%K +0.058%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-26 00:10
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -10.34%E -6.59%K -18.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-26 01:01
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -10.91%E -6.99%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 01:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -10.91%E -6.99%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 01:01
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -10.91%E -6.99%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 01:01
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -10.91%E -6.99%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 01:00
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -10.91%E -6.99%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -0.714%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-26 01:00
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.97%EV -3.49%E -2.06%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.77%EV -3.30%E -0.677%K -0.851%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.26%EV -4.64%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-26 01:01
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -5.56%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-26 00:55
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -5.56%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-26 00:53
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.79%EV -11.48%E -7.41%K -20.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -5.56%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-26 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -12.62%E -8.25%K -23.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-26 01:01
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -12.62%E -8.25%K -23.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-26 01:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -12.62%E -8.25%K -23.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-26 01:01
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.63%E -2.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -5.56%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 00:25
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -5.77%E -3.50%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-26 00:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.48%EV -13.77%E -9.12%K -26.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.59%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.93%EV -11.32%E -2.94%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-26 01:01
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.73%EV -4.63%E -2.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -5.56%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-26 00:35
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.00%EV -6.91%E -4.24%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.77%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-26 01:00
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.63%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -5.56%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 00:35
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -7.48%E -4.62%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -7.66%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.32%E -2.94%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-26 00:45
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -7.48%E -4.62%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -7.66%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.32%E -2.94%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-26 00:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -5.77%E -3.50%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-26 00:09
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -5.77%E -3.50%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-26 00:10
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -5.77%E -3.50%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.32%E -2.94%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 00:35
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.90%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -9.02%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-26 00:45
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-26 01:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.43%EV -16.05%E -10.92%K -34.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.67%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.90%EV -13.62%E -3.63%K -4.95%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-26 01:01
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -6.34%E -3.87%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-26 01:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -8.63%E -5.39%K -14.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 01:00
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -8.63%E -5.39%K -14.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -12.47%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-26 01:00
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.58%EV -10.34%E -6.59%K -18.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -13.62%E -3.63%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 00:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.38%EV -12.62%E -8.25%K -23.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -12.47%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-26 00:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.64%EV -8.63%E -5.39%K -14.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -12.63%E -2.87%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.77%EV -8.33%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 01:01
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.00%EV -7.48%E -4.62%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -12.63%E -2.87%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -17.08%E -4.74%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-26 00:30
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.15%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -12.63%E -2.87%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -17.08%E -4.74%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 00:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.15%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -12.63%E -2.87%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -17.08%E -4.74%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 00:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.15%EV -8.05%E -5.00%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -12.63%E -2.87%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -17.08%E -4.74%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-26 00:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.61%EV -11.48%E -7.41%K -20.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.17%EV -13.62%E -3.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.21%EV -12.93%E -3.42%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-26 00:30
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -7.48%E -4.62%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -14.02%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.62%E -3.63%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-26 00:10
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -10.34%E -6.59%K -18.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -14.02%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-26 00:10
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.63%E -5.39%K -14.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -14.02%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -12.47%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-26 00:32
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-10-26 01:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-10-26 01:01
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-10-26 01:01
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.70%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.35%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.3%2026-10-26 01:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.85%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%1.7%2026-10-26 01:01
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%2.9%2026-10-26 01:01

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