Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Waterford FC v Shelbourne Dublin

Inicio: 2026-08-02 14:00 UTC

Final: Waterford FC 1–0 Shelbourne Dublin

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Waterford FC (Local)

Predicción 32.78%3.05momio equitativo
EV -2.98%
Ventaja -1.01%
Kelly -1.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.53%32.76%32.89%33.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.632.782.752.9638.02%35.94%36.36%33.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shelbourne Dublin (Visitante)

Predicción 40.56%2.47momio equitativo
EV -3.87%
Ventaja -1.63%
Kelly -2.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.59%40.65%40.57%42.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.272.252.3746.51%44.12%44.44%42.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.66%3.75momio equitativo
EV -0.019%
Ventaja -0.005%
Kelly -0.007%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.39%26.60%26.54%27.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.423.403.7531.25%29.25%29.41%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Waterford FC (Local): 32.78%; Shelbourne Dublin (Visitante): 40.56%; Empate: 26.66%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.751. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.750, con un valor esperado de -0.019%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.81%EV -2.98%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.29%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.81%EV -2.98%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.29%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 13:55
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -3.31%E -1.12%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -0.019%E -0.005%K -0.007%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 13:25
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.96%EV -4.29%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.61%EV -3.87%E -1.63%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.44%EV -2.95%E -0.811%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 13:50
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -4.95%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 13:55
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -4.95%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 13:44
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -4.95%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 13:35
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -5.60%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 13:40
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -5.60%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -6.59%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 13:40
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.59%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -5.35%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -6.59%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 13:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -6.59%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 13:20
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.12%EV -7.24%E -2.56%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.40%EV -5.90%E -2.54%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.48%EV -5.62%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-02 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.95%EV -7.24%E -2.56%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.72%EV -7.11%E -3.11%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -5.62%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 13:54
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -8.23%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.02%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 13:54
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.23%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 13:38
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.23%E -2.94%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 13:55
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:15
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:10
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:10
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:14
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:10
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.71%E -2.92%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 13:55
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.40%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -5.90%E -2.54%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV -7.52%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 11:14
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-02 13:19
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-02 13:44
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-02 13:40
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 13:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 13:40
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-02 13:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-02 13:49
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-02 13:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -9.87%E -3.59%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.79%E -5.95%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-02 13:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.92%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.92%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 11:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-02 13:39
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.74%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-02 13:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-02 13:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-02 13:19
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-02 13:20
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-02 13:19
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.85%EV -13.14%E -4.96%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 39.94%EV -11.57%E -5.31%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.21%EV -14.68%E -4.59%K -6.67%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-02 13:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.28%EV -13.80%E -5.25%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-02 11:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.39%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-08-02 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.39%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-08-02 13:55
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.39%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-08-02 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-08-02 13:50