The School of Odds
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Waterford FC v Drogheda United

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:46 UTC

Final: Waterford FC 3–1 Drogheda United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC (Local)

Prediction 55.25%1.81fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -6.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.72%55.41%55.15%58.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.671.671.7264.94%59.82%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Drogheda United (Visit)

Prediction 20.33%4.92fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.465%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 5.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.60%20.26%20.42%21.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.444.405.0125.00%22.54%22.73%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%24.32%24.43%25.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.753.9728.57%26.68%26.67%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waterford FC (Local): 55.25%; Drogheda United (Visit): 20.33%; Draw: 24.41%. For Drogheda United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.92. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.72%EV -6.62%E -3.92%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.13%EV +1.86%E +0.372%K +0.465%G +0.009%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.15%EV -3.07%E -0.774%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:40
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.72%EV -6.62%E -3.92%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.13%EV +1.86%E +0.372%K +0.465%G +0.009%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.15%EV -3.07%E -0.774%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -13.25%E -8.44%K -23.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -0.372%E -0.076%K -0.095%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -4.78%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.47%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -2.41%E -0.501%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.56%E -0.902%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-23 11:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.13%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -2.41%E -0.501%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 15:06
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.13%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -2.41%E -0.501%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 15:06
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.28%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -3.42%E -0.720%K -0.913%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 12:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -6.62%E -3.92%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.47%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.78%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 11:09
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.97%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.47%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-23 15:04
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -6.47%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 11:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.74%EV -6.07%E -3.57%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.45%EV -7.49%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 10:50
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.73%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 10:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.07%E -3.57%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.22%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 10:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -4.78%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 11:09
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.22%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 12:00
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 11:00
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -8.51%E -1.89%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.89%E -2.98%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 15:25
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:00
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:01
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:00
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:01
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:00
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.96%E -2.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 13:01
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 11:59
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.27%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.22%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:49
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.37%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -11.96%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.37%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -11.96%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 10:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.37%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -11.96%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 11:00
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.37%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -11.96%E -2.76%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 11:01
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.84%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -12.57%E -2.92%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-23 13:26
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.61%EV -10.49%E -6.48%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.82%EV -13.59%E -3.20%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.57%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-23 15:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.75%EV -8.28%E -4.99%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -14.60%E -3.48%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 11:01
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -8.28%E -4.99%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -14.60%E -3.48%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -10.89%E -2.98%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.05%EV -8.28%E -4.99%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -14.60%E -3.48%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -10.89%E -2.98%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 13:01
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -14.60%E -3.48%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 11:10
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -14.60%E -3.48%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.54%EV -14.91%E -9.68%K -27.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.37%EV -14.60%E -3.48%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.09%EV -13.33%E -3.75%K -5.23%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-23 11:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.43%EV -9.38%E -5.72%K -14.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -16.64%E -4.06%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 11:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.89%EV -9.38%E -5.72%K -14.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -16.64%E -4.06%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.01%EV -10.49%E -6.48%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -16.64%E -4.06%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.65%EV -13.33%E -3.75%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-23 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.32%EV -13.25%E -8.44%K -23.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.32%EV -18.67%E -4.67%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.36%EV -14.55%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-23 13:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.71%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.8%2026-10-23 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.64%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-10-23 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.64%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-10-23 13:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.64%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-10-23 14:26