The School of Odds
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Waterford FC v Drogheda United

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC (Local)

Prediction 32.10%3.12fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.30%32.06%32.15%32.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.872.9837.04%34.97%34.90%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Drogheda United (Visit)

Prediction 39.79%2.51fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.67%39.82%39.75%40.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.4546.51%43.53%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.11%3.56fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.459%
Kelly -0.643%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.20%28.12%28.10%28.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.243.253.5032.79%30.91%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waterford FC (Local): 32.10%; Drogheda United (Visit): 39.79%; Draw: 28.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.40%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.50%EV -8.09%E -3.50%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.10%EV -6.39%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 18:35
Pinnacle🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.43%EV -4.66%E -1.57%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.32%EV -2.52%E -1.03%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.25%EV -4.14%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-10 18:20
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -6.50%E -2.77%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -1.61%E -0.459%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 18:05
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -6.27%E -2.15%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.69%E -3.32%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.63%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 18:25
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -6.27%E -2.15%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -7.69%E -3.32%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.63%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.82%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-10 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.63%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-10 18:25
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.63%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-10 18:34
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.63%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-10 18:35
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.23%E -2.19%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-07 16:09
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.04%E -3.14%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-10 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.52%EV -6.10%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.67%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 18:35
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.63%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.23%E -2.19%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 18:05
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -5.82%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-10 18:05
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -11.45%E -3.63%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.36%EV -9.48%E -3.36%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.67%EV -6.10%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -11.45%E -3.63%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-10 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.36%EV -9.48%E -3.36%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.67%EV -6.10%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -11.45%E -3.63%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-10 18:20
Everygame🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -6.50%E -2.77%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -10.04%E -3.14%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-10 18:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -7.23%E -2.19%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-10 18:30
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.85%E -4.15%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-10 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.85%E -4.15%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-10 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.85%E -4.15%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-10 18:20
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.85%E -4.15%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-10 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.44%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.21%EV -14.46%E -6.72%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.35%EV -14.26%E -4.67%K -6.95%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-10 18:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -13.33%E -4.94%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79%EV -12.47%E -5.67%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -11.45%E -3.63%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-10 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.32%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.5%2026-04-10 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.32%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.5%2026-04-10 18:30
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.69%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33%1.8%2026-04-10 18:32
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.18%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.95%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-04-10 18:34