The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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St Patricks Athletic v Derry City

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Patricks Athletic (Local)

Prediction 49.91%2.00fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.28%49.91%48.23%53.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.881.921.9256.82%53.12%52.08%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Derry City (Visit)

Prediction 22.88%4.37fair odd
EV +2.72%
Edge +0.607%
Kelly +0.780%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 4.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%22.88%23.71%25.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.853.904.4929.85%25.99%25.64%22.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.21%3.67fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.404%
Kelly +0.552%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.32%27.21%28.06%28.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.243.253.7332.79%30.83%30.77%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Patricks Athletic (Local): 49.91%; Derry City (Visit): 22.88%; Draw: 27.21%. For Derry City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.65%EV -12.16%E -6.91%K -16.00%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.03%EV +2.72%E +0.607%K +0.780%G +0.021%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.32%EV +1.51%E +0.404%K +0.552%G +0.008%5.9%2026-07-26 22:05
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.01%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -10.77%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.55%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 19:10
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.06%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -11.92%E -3.10%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-24 19:10
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.06%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -11.92%E -3.10%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-24 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.17%EV -6.17%E -3.28%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -11.92%E -3.10%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -12.92%E -4.04%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-24 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.31%EV -6.67%E -3.57%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -11.92%E -3.10%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -12.92%E -4.04%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-24 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.31%EV -6.67%E -3.57%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -11.92%E -3.10%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -12.92%E -4.04%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-24 19:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.12%EV -8.67%E -4.74%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -14.21%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%EV -15.64%E -5.04%K -7.45%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-24 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -10.17%E -5.65%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -17.64%E -4.90%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -15.64%E -5.04%K -7.45%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-24 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.88%EV -9.17%E -5.04%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.90%EV -19.93%E -5.69%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.23%EV -12.92%E -4.04%K -5.87%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-24 19:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 47.28%EV -11.16%E -6.27%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.12%EV -23.36%E -6.97%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.59%EV -17.00%E -5.57%K -8.29%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-24 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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