The School of Odds

St Patricks Athletic v Derry City

2026-07-31 18:45 UTC — League of Ireland

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Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

St Patricks Athletic (Local)

Prediction 53.09%1.88fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -7.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.09%53.09%53.09%53.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.781.781.7856%56%56%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Derry City (Visit)

Prediction 21.23%4.71fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.23%21.23%21.23%21.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.454.454.454.4522%22%22%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.68%25.68%25.68%25.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.683.683.683.6827%27%27%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 53.09%EV -5.50%E -3.09%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.23%EV -5.50%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.68%EV -5.50%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 23:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.