The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sligo Rovers v Waterford FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers (Local)

Prediction 32.80%3.05fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.00%32.75%32.61%34.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.782.802.9038.17%35.94%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Waterford FC (Visit)

Prediction 40.51%2.47fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -3.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.67%40.54%40.55%40.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.252.3545.45%44.13%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.97%26.71%26.83%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.443.403.6030.30%29.05%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sligo Rovers (Local): 32.80%; Waterford FC (Visit): 40.51%; Draw: 26.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -3.90%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -4.89%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.70%EV -7.64%E -3.35%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-19 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -4.89%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.70%EV -7.64%E -3.35%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-19 16:45
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -6.53%E -2.29%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -4.80%E -2.04%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -3.90%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-19 18:05
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -6.53%E -2.29%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.91%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-19 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.90%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 23:31
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.83%E -2.97%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.91%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-18 09:09
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.85%E -3.93%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-17 15:44
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.81%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.85%E -3.93%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 23:28
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.81%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.85%E -3.93%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 18:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.81%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.85%E -3.93%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.57%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 18:05
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.45%E -4.24%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.88%E -4.95%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 23:28
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.45%E -4.24%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.88%E -4.95%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.91%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-17 15:40
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -14.07%E -5.37%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -8.85%E -3.93%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.24%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-19 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.85%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.85%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.30%184.1%2026-08-19 22:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.85%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.85%1.09I 91.74%NM 32.30%184.1%2026-08-19 22:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-19 18:50