Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sligo Rovers v Waterford FC

Inicio: 2026-08-21 19:00 UTC

Final: Sligo Rovers 0–0 Waterford FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sligo Rovers (Local)

Predicción 31.19%3.21momio equitativo
EV -2.70%
Ventaja -0.865%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.64%31.31%31.10%34.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.852.873.1240.00%35.07%34.84%32.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Waterford FC (Visitante)

Predicción 42.32%2.36momio equitativo
EV -1.39%
Ventaja -0.598%
Kelly -1.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.78%42.23%42.38%44.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.202.202.3348.78%45.37%45.45%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.49%3.77momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -0.904%
Kelly -1.25%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.53%26.47%26.51%27.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.403.403.6531.75%29.38%29.41%27.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sligo Rovers (Local): 31.19%; Waterford FC (Visitante): 42.32%; Empate: 26.49%. Para Waterford FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.36. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.33, con un valor esperado de -1.39%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.85%EV -2.70%E -0.865%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.78%EV -4.78%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.37%EV -3.30%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -3.32%E -1.07%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -13.24%E -6.46%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -4.63%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 18:50
1xBet🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.30%EV -3.63%E -1.18%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.17%EV -6.05%E -2.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 18:55
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.11%EV -4.88%E -1.60%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.17%EV -4.78%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -5.95%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -4.88%E -1.60%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.95%EV -5.20%E -2.32%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -8.60%E -2.49%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -4.88%E -1.60%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.95%EV -5.20%E -2.32%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -8.60%E -2.49%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -5.19%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.56%EV -7.32%E -3.34%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.78%EV -7.80%E -2.24%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:55
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.78%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.63%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.90%E -3.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-21 18:35
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 18:29
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 18:34
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -6.44%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -10.28%E -4.85%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 18:50
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.00%E -2.71%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.90%E -3.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.63%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-21 18:38
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -8.00%E -2.71%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -7.74%E -3.55%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -8.00%E -2.71%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -7.74%E -3.55%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.00%E -2.71%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.56%E -3.30%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 18:35
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.56%E -3.30%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 18:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.56%E -3.30%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -6.90%E -3.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.48%EV -9.56%E -3.30%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.13%EV -13.24%E -6.46%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-21 18:35
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.18%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-21 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -10.18%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -11.13%E -5.30%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-21 18:30
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -10.18%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -11.13%E -5.30%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-21 18:30
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.90%EV -10.49%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -11.13%E -5.30%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-21 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.90%EV -10.49%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -11.13%E -5.30%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-21 18:30
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -11.12%E -3.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -4.78%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 13:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -11.12%E -3.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 18:35
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -11.12%E -3.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -11.12%E -3.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -11.13%E -5.30%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -8.60%E -2.49%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-21 18:35
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.68%E -4.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-21 18:35
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.68%E -4.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-21 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.68%E -4.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-21 18:50
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.68%E -4.53%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 18:35
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -14.24%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.07%EV -11.97%E -5.76%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-21 18:35
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -15.80%E -5.85%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -1.39%E -0.598%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.25%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:04
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -17.98%E -6.84%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -2.66%E -1.16%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 18:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -18.91%E -7.27%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -3.51%E -1.54%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-21 00:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.83%EV -18.91%E -7.27%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.10%EV -4.78%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -13.90%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-21 18:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.83%EV -18.91%E -7.27%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.10%EV -4.78%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -13.90%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-21 18:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.13%EV -22.03%E -8.81%K -14.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.78%EV -6.90%E -3.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.09%EV -16.55%E -5.25%K -7.70%G +0.000%17.2%2026-08-21 18:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%1.3%2026-08-21 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%1.3%2026-08-21 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%1.3%2026-08-21 18:55
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%1.3%2026-08-21 18:55