Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers v Galway United

2026-09-05 18:45 UTC — League of Ireland

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

30%

43%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers (Local)

Prediction 30.18%3.31fair odd

EV -4.93%

Edge -1.56%

Kelly -2.29%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.52%30.18%30.18%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.083.113.103.1532.47%32.15%32.26%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Galway United (Visit)

Prediction 42.84%2.33fair odd

EV -4.47%

Edge -2.01%

Kelly -3.64%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.48%42.84%42.84%43.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.162.162.2347.62%46.22%46.30%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd

EV -5.03%

Edge -1.43%

Kelly -1.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.51%26.98%26.98%27.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.463.453.5229.41%28.93%28.99%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sligo Rovers (Local): 30.18%; Galway United (Visit): 42.84%; Draw: 26.98%. For Galway United (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.23, with an expected value of -4.47%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.07%EV -4.93%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.48%EV -4.47%E -2.01%K -3.64%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-28 20:20
Bovada🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.44%E -2.08%K -3.06%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.04%E -4.78%K -9.13%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-28 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 30.29%EV -7.04%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.20%EV -7.47%E -3.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%	3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.03%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-28 19:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.