The School of Odds
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Sligo Rovers v Derry City

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 19:45 UTC

Final: Sligo Rovers 2–2 Derry City

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers (Local)

Prediction 27.66%3.62fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.916%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.06%27.54%27.90%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.303.5032.26%29.96%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Derry City (Visit)

Prediction 47.45%2.11fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.05%47.48%47.22%49.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.931.942.0456.18%51.82%51.55%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.89%4.02fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%24.97%24.88%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.703.8530.30%27.64%27.03%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sligo Rovers (Local): 27.66%; Derry City (Visit): 47.45%; Draw: 24.89%. For Derry City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.04, with an expected value of -3.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.17%EV -7.94%E -4.09%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.12%EV -7.40%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 19:10
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -7.94%E -4.09%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:00
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:00
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:00
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:00
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-30 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.43%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.00%EV -7.40%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -3.21%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -12.21%E -6.60%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-30 19:30
Pinnacle🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 27.76%EV -4.04%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.22%EV -3.20%E -1.57%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.02%EV -4.16%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-30 19:30
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -5.97%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -4.16%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 19:29
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.97%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -9.37%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-30 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.97%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -9.37%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-30 19:30
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.97%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -9.37%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-30 19:30
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -7.35%E -2.20%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.10%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.41%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 19:25
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -7.35%E -2.20%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.79%EV -11.26%E -6.02%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.88%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -7.35%E -2.20%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.79%EV -11.26%E -6.02%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.88%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:00
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.74%E -2.65%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 19:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.74%E -2.65%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-30 19:15
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.74%E -2.65%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.34%EV -7.94%E -4.09%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.90%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-30 19:15
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.74%E -2.65%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.14%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 19:12
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.74%E -2.65%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.88%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-30 19:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -8.74%E -2.65%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -12.21%E -6.60%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.88%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-30 19:00
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.12%E -3.11%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -10.39%E -2.89%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-30 19:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.12%E -3.11%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -10.39%E -2.89%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-30 19:35
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.12%E -3.11%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.98%EV -6.04%E -3.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -12.88%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-30 19:09
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.12%E -3.11%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.88%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-30 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.90%EV -10.12%E -3.11%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.77%EV -13.16%E -7.19%K -15.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.34%EV -14.12%E -4.09%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-30 19:00
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.50%E -3.59%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -6.65%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 19:14
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.50%E -3.59%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.37%E -4.52%K -6.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.50%E -3.59%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.37%E -4.52%K -6.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.50%E -3.59%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.37%E -4.52%K -6.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:10
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.50%E -3.59%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.37%E -4.52%K -6.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:10
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -11.50%E -3.59%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.80%EV -9.84%E -5.18%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -12.88%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-30 19:15
PMU (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.65%EV -11.50%E -3.59%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 47.90%EV -15.53%E -8.73%K -19.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.45%EV -16.61%E -4.96%K -7.07%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-30 19:00
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -14.27%E -4.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -5.41%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 19:04
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -14.27%E -4.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -17.86%E -5.41%K -7.76%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-30 19:10
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -14.27%E -4.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.35%EV -10.32%E -5.46%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -14.12%E -4.09%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-30 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%1.1%2026-10-30 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%1.1%2026-10-30 19:30
Matchbook◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.52%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.02%1.2%2026-10-30 19:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.93%1.6%2026-10-30 19:35

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