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Shelbourne Dublin v St Patricks Athletic

Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shelbourne Dublin (Local)

Prediction 28.92%3.46fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.50%29.53%28.88%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.143.173.3034.72%31.83%31.50%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Patricks Athletic (Visit)

Prediction 43.02%2.32fair odd
EV +7.12%
Edge +2.86%
Kelly +4.78%
Growth +0.340%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.05%42.31%43.11%43.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.4948.78%46.40%46.51%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.61%28.16%28.01%29.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.253.4033.33%30.83%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shelbourne Dublin (Local): 28.92%; St Patricks Athletic (Visit): 43.02%; Draw: 28.06%. For St Patricks Athletic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.89%EV -16.70%E -5.80%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.05%EV +7.12%E +2.86%K +4.78%G +0.340%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.06%EV -8.53%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 17:20
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.36%E -2.44%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 08:34
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -6.22%E -2.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 08:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -6.22%E -2.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 08:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.51%E -3.49%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 08:35
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.89%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -7.51%E -3.49%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-03 03:44
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.51%E -3.49%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-04 00:30
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -8.89%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -7.51%E -3.49%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-04 08:35
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.66%E -4.60%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-04 08:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.66%E -4.60%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-04 08:34
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -9.66%E -4.60%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-04 10:04
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -9.66%E -4.60%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-04 08:34
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -11.79%E -3.86%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.81%EV -10.95%E -5.29%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.13%EV -11.62%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-04 08:34
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -13.23%E -4.41%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -11.81%E -5.76%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -15.83%E -5.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-04 08:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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