The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda United

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shamrock Rovers (Local)

Prediction 65.71%1.52fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -5.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.66%65.44%65.71%66.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.381.391.4877.52%72.28%71.94%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Drogheda United (Visit)

Prediction 12.92%7.74fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.415%
Kelly -0.478%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.40%13.36%12.92%15.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.777.007.5016.67%14.77%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -0.855%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.39%21.20%21.37%22.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.204.254.5026.32%23.79%23.53%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shamrock Rovers (Local): 65.71%; Drogheda United (Visit): 12.92%; Draw: 21.37%. For Shamrock Rovers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.48, with an expected value of -2.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.66%EV -2.74%E -1.85%K -5.72%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 15.17%EV -19.77%E -3.18%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.17%EV -4.91%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-04 09:25
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.81%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -3.11%E -0.415%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 15:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.97%EV -7.34%E -5.21%K -17.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -3.11%E -0.415%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 15:30
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.06%EV -7.34%E -5.21%K -17.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -9.57%E -1.37%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-21 15:27
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.62%EV -8.00%E -5.72%K -20.00%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -6.98%E -0.970%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 14:19
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.62%EV -8.00%E -5.72%K -20.00%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -6.98%E -0.970%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 14:20
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -8.00%E -5.72%K -20.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -9.57%E -1.37%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-21 15:29
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -9.32%E -6.75%K -24.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -9.57%E -1.37%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -3.85%E -0.855%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-21 14:20
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -10.63%E -7.82%K -29.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -9.57%E -1.37%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-21 14:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -10.63%E -7.82%K -29.53%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -19.26%E -3.08%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -12.39%E -3.02%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-21 14:19
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.83%EV -10.63%E -7.82%K -29.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.47%EV -22.49%E -3.75%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-21 14:24
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.05%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.25%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.21%EV -12.80%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-21 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.00%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.40%EV -22.49%E -3.75%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.60%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-21 14:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 64.62%EV -15.23%E -11.81%K -52.52%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 13.44%EV -19.90%E -3.21%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.94%EV -18.80%E -4.95%K -6.72%G +0.000%20.0%2026-09-21 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.