The School of Odds
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Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda United

2026-10-09 19:00 UTC — League of Ireland

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shamrock Rovers (Local)

Prediction 66.03%1.51fair odd
EV -6.24%
Edge -4.39%
Kelly -14.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.83%66.03%65.74%66.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.381.381.4277.52%72.67%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Drogheda United (Visit)

Prediction 12.76%7.84fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.665%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.40%12.76%12.72%14.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.827.007.5016.67%14.67%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.21%4.71fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.39%21.21%21.54%22.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.184.254.5026.32%23.90%23.53%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Shamrock Rovers (Local): 66.03%; Drogheda United (Visit): 12.76%; Draw: 21.21%. For Drogheda United (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.84. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 7.50, with an expected value of -4.32%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.81%EV -6.24%E -4.39%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.32%E -0.576%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 15:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.97%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -4.32%E -0.576%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 15:30
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.06%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -10.70%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -10.90%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-21 15:27
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.62%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -8.15%E -1.13%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.84%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 14:19
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.62%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -8.15%E -1.13%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.84%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 14:20
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -10.70%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -15.15%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-21 15:29
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -8.88%E -6.43%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.70%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -4.54%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-21 14:20
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -10.70%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -6.66%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-21 14:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -20.27%E -3.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -13.02%E -3.18%K -4.20%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-21 14:19
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.83%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.47%EV -23.46%E -3.91%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -15.15%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-21 14:24
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.05%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.21%EV -13.89%E -2.06%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-21 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.00%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.40%EV -23.46%E -3.91%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.60%EV -15.15%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-21 14:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 64.62%EV -14.82%E -11.49%K -51.11%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 13.44%EV -20.91%E -3.37%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.94%EV -19.39%E -5.10%K -6.92%G +0.000%20.0%2026-09-21 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.