The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Galway United v Waterford FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-24 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United (Local)

Prediction 50.14%1.99fair odd
EV +2.29%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%49.65%50.08%50.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.841.852.0457.14%54.24%54.20%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Waterford FC (Visit)

Prediction 25.96%3.85fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.708%
Kelly -0.965%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.42%26.42%26.09%29.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.503.7530.77%28.57%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.90%4.18fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%23.93%23.83%24.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.823.834.0028.57%26.16%26.14%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Galway United (Local): 50.14%; Waterford FC (Visit): 25.96%; Draw: 23.90%. For Galway United (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.38%EV +2.29%E +1.12%K +2.20%G +0.050%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -15.63%E -4.81%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.51%EV -7.75%E -2.01%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-20 04:15
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -5.73%E -3.05%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -2.65%E -0.708%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.40%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 01:00
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.84%EV -6.24%E -3.33%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -7.85%E -2.21%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -6.79%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-21 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.24%E -3.91%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.55%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -4.40%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-20 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.16%EV -7.24%E -3.91%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -5.25%E -1.44%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -9.18%E -2.42%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-20 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.16%EV -7.24%E -3.91%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -5.25%E -1.44%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -9.18%E -2.42%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-20 13:54
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -7.24%E -3.91%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -9.14%E -2.61%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -11.57%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-21 11:15
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.91%EV -7.74%E -4.21%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.14%E -2.61%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -7.99%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 01:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -8.24%E -4.50%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.14%E -2.61%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -6.79%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 01:00
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -8.24%E -4.50%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.74%E -3.45%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -10.38%E -2.77%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-20 13:54
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.74%E -5.41%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -9.14%E -2.61%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -6.79%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-20 13:53
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.74%E -5.41%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.14%E -2.61%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.18%E -2.42%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-20 13:53
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.19%EV -11.25%E -6.36%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -11.74%E -3.45%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -10.38%E -2.77%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-20 13:54
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.06%EV -12.25%E -7.00%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -15.63%E -4.81%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.53%EV -16.35%E -4.67%K -6.54%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-22 07:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.99%158.0%2026-07-22 04:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.99%158.0%2026-07-22 04:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 30.89%1.25I 80.00%NM 30.89%1.01I 99.01%NM 38.23%159.0%2026-07-22 04:10