The School of Odds
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Galway United v Sligo Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United (Local)

Prediction 56.21%1.78fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -6.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.40%56.25%56.18%57.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.641.641.7063.69%61.14%60.98%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sligo Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 19.96%5.01fair odd
EV -4.97%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.46%19.96%20.03%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.534.554.7624.39%22.06%21.98%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.83%4.20fair odd
EV -0.633%
Edge -0.152%
Kelly -0.200%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.63%23.79%23.80%24.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.793.804.1728.57%26.38%26.32%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Galway United (Local): 56.21%; Sligo Rovers (Visit): 19.96%; Draw: 23.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.17, with an expected value of -0.633%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.09%EV -4.45%E -2.62%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -5.17%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-06 07:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -5.17%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.07%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-06 07:35
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 09:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -6.13%E -3.67%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 09:15
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.26%E -4.40%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -9.45%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-04 12:20
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.54%EV -7.82%E -4.77%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.83%EV -4.97%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.63%EV -0.633%E -0.152%K -0.200%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-03 20:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.27%EV -7.82%E -4.77%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.07%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-04 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.27%EV -7.82%E -4.77%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.07%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-04 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.47%EV -8.94%E -5.52%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -6.17%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -9.45%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-06 07:39
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -8.94%E -5.52%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -9.45%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 07:35
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -8.94%E -5.52%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -14.22%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-06 09:20
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.40%EV -10.07%E -6.29%K -16.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.73%EV -16.15%E -3.85%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -16.60%E -4.74%K -6.64%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-06 07:35
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.83%EV -10.63%E -6.69%K -18.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -12.16%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.99%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-06 07:34
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.97%EV -11.75%E -7.49%K -20.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%EV -18.15%E -4.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -14.22%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-06 09:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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