Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Drogheda United v Sligo Rovers

Inicio: 2026-09-11 18:45 UTC

Final: Drogheda United 2–0 Sligo Rovers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Drogheda United (Local)

Predicción 53.53%1.87momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.822%
Kelly -1.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.84

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.37%53.44%53.55%55.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.731.721.8461.73%57.67%58.14%54.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sligo Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 21.11%4.74momio equitativo
EV +0.261%
Ventaja +0.055%
Kelly +0.070%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.67%21.22%21.17%23.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.254.304.7527.03%23.50%23.26%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.37%3.94momio equitativo
EV -2.34%
Ventaja -0.607%
Kelly -0.820%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.12%25.34%25.28%26.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.553.553.8530.77%28.16%28.17%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Drogheda United (Local): 53.53%; Sligo Rovers (Visitante): 21.11%; Empate: 25.37%. Para Sligo Rovers (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.74. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.261%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.49%EV -6.33%E -3.62%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV +0.261%E +0.055%K +0.070%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV +0.261%E +0.055%K +0.070%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.61%E -0.949%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 18:45
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -10.61%E -6.35%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -0.795%E -0.169%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 12:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.60%EV -8.47%E -4.95%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.10%EV -5.64%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:50
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.19%EV -7.40%E -4.28%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.61%EV -3.96%E -0.870%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.20%EV -5.64%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -5.02%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 09:39
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.71%EV -8.47%E -4.95%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -5.02%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -10.61%E -6.35%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -5.02%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 14:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%EV -8.47%E -4.95%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -5.02%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -11.22%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -8.47%E -4.95%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 09:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -8.47%E -4.95%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 09:10
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -8.47%E -4.95%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 09:10
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -8.47%E -4.95%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 14:00
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.03%EV -6.87%E -3.95%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 14:21
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.51%EV -7.94%E -4.61%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -15.02%E -4.48%K -6.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 20:50
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.61%EV -13.29%E -8.20%K -21.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.11%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -11.22%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 17:34
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.33%E -3.62%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -8.18%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -2.34%E -0.607%K -0.820%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.95%EV -6.33%E -3.62%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -8.18%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 12:20
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.66%EV -6.87%E -3.95%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -8.60%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.22%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 13:14
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -6.33%E -3.62%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -8.60%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 12:20
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.61%E -6.35%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -8.60%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -11.22%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 17:25
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.61%E -6.35%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -8.60%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -11.22%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.51%EV -6.87%E -3.95%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -9.24%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -7.94%E -4.61%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -9.24%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -11.22%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 12:20
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -7.94%E -4.61%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -9.24%E -2.15%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -11.22%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 12:20
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 13:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 13:10
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 13:14
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.84%EV -1.51%E -0.822%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -2.05%E -1.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.00%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 12:21
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.63%EV -13.29%E -8.20%K -21.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.19%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.18%EV -12.48%E -3.62%K -5.10%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-09 12:21
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -7.40%E -4.28%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.61%E -0.949%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 10:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.82%EV -10.08%E -6.00%K -14.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.00%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-09 12:21
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.50%EV -5.26%E -2.97%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -18.74%E -4.87%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.44%EV -5.80%E -3.29%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -18.74%E -4.87%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -15.02%E -4.48%K -6.39%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.37%EV -6.87%E -3.95%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.07%EV -19.79%E -5.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -16.29%E -4.94%K -7.08%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-05 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.37%EV -6.87%E -3.95%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.07%EV -19.79%E -5.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -16.29%E -4.94%K -7.08%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-05 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.44%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.18%EV -21.90%E -5.92%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.38%EV -17.56%E -5.40%K -7.80%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 51.36%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%10.6%2026-09-09 14:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 51.36%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%10.6%2026-09-09 14:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 51.36%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%10.6%2026-09-09 14:20