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Drogheda United v Derry City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Drogheda United (Local)
Prediction 32.06%3.12fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.29%31.91%32.14%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.902.903.0037.74%34.50%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derry City (Visit)
Prediction 39.54%2.53fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.620%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.19%39.70%39.54%42.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.272.252.4949.02%44.02%44.44%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.40%3.52fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.589%
Kelly -0.830%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.57%28.40%28.32%30.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.203.203.4533.90%31.26%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Drogheda United (Local): 32.06%; Derry City (Visit): 39.54%; Draw: 28.40%. For Derry City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.49, with an expected value of -1.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.00%EV -14.20%E -6.54%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.97%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.36%EV -4.45%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.30%EV -3.52%E -1.44%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.34%EV -12.54%E -4.07%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-16 18:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.69%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -3.45%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-16 18:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -7.71%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-16 18:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -7.71%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-16 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.55%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-16 18:38 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.97%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-16 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -15.38%E -7.19%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -7.71%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-16 05:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -5.41%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.95%EV -15.38%E -7.19%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -7.71%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-16 05:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.86%EV -6.05%E -2.07%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.14%EV -2.73%E -1.11%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.99%EV -2.32%E -0.673%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-16 18:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.87%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -4.31%E -1.78%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -4.31%E -1.78%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -4.31%E -1.78%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -9.13%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-16 18:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.13%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.97%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.97%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.42%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.01%EV -16.97%E -8.08%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -9.13%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-16 05:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.43%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.66%EV -1.54%E -0.620%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%EV -2.03%E -0.589%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.33%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.45%EV -6.68%E -2.83%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.81%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.81%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.81%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-16 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.31%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 41.97%EV -17.76%E -8.54%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.71%EV -10.55%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-10-16 05:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -7.98%E -2.78%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -14.81%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.94%EV -7.98%E -2.78%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -14.81%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.13%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.55%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -10.55%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-16 18:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -11.97%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-16 18:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -10.55%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 41.90%EV -19.34%E -9.48%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.57%EV -11.97%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-10-16 05:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.29%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.13%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.55%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.98%EV -18.94%E -9.24%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 28.48%EV -16.23%E -5.50%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-10-16 18:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -13.43%E -4.97%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -14.81%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.10%EV -15.03%E -5.67%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.14%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -13.39%E -4.39%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.69% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30% | 1.0% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.69% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30% | 1.0% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.69% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30% | 1.0% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68% | 1.1% | 2026-10-16 18:40 |