Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derry City v St Patricks Athletic

2026-10-19 18:45 UTC — League of Ireland

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

31%

41%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derry City (Local)

Prediction 30.87%3.24fair odd

EV -5.23%

Edge -1.70%

Kelly -2.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.87%30.87%30.87%32.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.943.003.003.0734.01%33.28%33.28%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Patricks Athletic (Visit)

Prediction 40.67%2.46fair odd

EV -5.23%

Edge -2.25%

Kelly -3.93%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.67%40.67%40.67%41.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.272.302.302.3344.05%43.48%43.48%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd

EV +5.87%

Edge +1.58%

Kelly +2.16%

Growth +0.127%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.61%28.46%28.46%28.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.333.533.533.7230.03%28.37%28.37%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Derry City (Local): 30.87%; St Patricks Athletic (Visit): 40.67%; Draw: 28.46%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.72, producing a positive expected value of +5.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -9.25%E -3.14%K -4.77%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.98%EV -7.67%E -3.38%K -6.04%G +0.000%	3.72I 26.88%NM 25.61%EV +5.87%E +1.58%K +2.16%G +0.127%	4.9%	2026-10-03 00:24
Pinnacle🎯	3.07I 32.57%NM 30.87%EV -5.23%E -1.70%K -2.53%G +0.000%	2.33I 42.92%NM 40.67%EV -5.23%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000%	3.33I 30.03%NM 28.46%EV -5.23%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-02 21:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.