The School of Odds
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Derry City v St Patricks Athletic

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derry City (Local)

Prediction 31.00%3.23fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%31.00%31.41%32.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.903.1037.04%34.96%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Patricks Athletic (Visit)

Prediction 40.32%2.48fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.17%40.32%39.95%42.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.292.282.3850.51%43.68%43.86%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.68%3.49fair odd
EV -6.79%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.27%28.68%28.63%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.193.203.2532.79%31.33%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derry City (Local): 31.00%; St Patricks Athletic (Visit): 40.32%; Draw: 28.68%. For Derry City (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -3.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.89%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.30%E -5.14%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 15:15
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:29
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.04%E -1.70%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 19:30
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.46%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.02%EV -8.07%E -3.54%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 20:35
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.46%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.02%EV -8.07%E -3.54%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 20:35
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -13.20%E -4.71%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.22%EV -8.07%E -3.54%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.09%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -13.20%E -4.71%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.22%EV -8.07%E -3.54%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.09%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -13.20%E -4.71%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.22%EV -8.07%E -3.54%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.09%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -14.75%E -5.36%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -9.28%E -4.13%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -11.09%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-02 19:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -14.75%E -5.36%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -13.32%E -6.19%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -8.22%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-02 20:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.39%EV -14.75%E -5.36%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 42.21%EV -20.17%E -10.19%K -20.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.40%EV -12.53%E -4.11%K -6.11%G +0.000%19.7%2026-10-02 20:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.82%EV -16.30%E -6.04%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.91%EV -15.33%E -7.30%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.27%EV -9.66%E -3.07%K -4.49%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-02 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.